This is a daily feature of this blog. For further detail, please see this post.
| State | RCP | Pollster | 538 | 538 Win % |
| NV | +2.3 | +2.4 | +2.0 | 70% |
| CO | +5.4 | +5.7 | +5.4 | 89% |
| MO | +2.7 | +1.6 | +1.3 | 64% |
| OH | +2.8 | +0.7 | +2.2 | 72% |
| VA | +6.8 | +8.0 | +6.5 | 93% |
| NC | +1.5 | +3.1 | +1.1 | 63% |
| FL | +1.5 | +2.2 | +2.5 | 74% |
Overall, a little tightening in the race since yesterday, but nothing extreme.
6 comments:
Great idea Bell Curve. Would it be too much trouble to add Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Indiana to the list of states to watch? I only suggest them because there are a lot of rumors that McCain people think they have a chance in PA and a lot of Democrats are hoping to poach either WVA or Indiana in a surprise upset.
The disparity in polling averages is interesting, particularly w/r/t Ohio and NC.
RbR -- Let's look at the pollster.com trendlines for those three states:
Indiana
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
I'm willing to add Indiana, even though it doesn't look great for Obama. He's had a great month, but he hasn't cut into McCain's lead at all there. West Virginia only seems competitive because of an ARG poll that is clearly an outlier. And I don't have any idea why McCain thinks he can compete in Pennsylvania unless he thinks they're racist (which he very well might).
Yeah, I figured the numbers would not look as close as the states you already include. I was just going by the press the states are getting. I do think that the McCain people are counting on a big Bradley effect nation-wide. Just look at all the race baiting their local party organizations are doing. Their GOTV operations are heavily based on covert and overt appeals to racists.
But it's your post and your call.
A new poll has Obama leading by +10 in Indiana. (Battleground). I don't buy it really, because Battleground released a slew of midwest outlier polls with Obama up by +10 throughout the midwest, and +20 in Michigan, for example. Still, one cannot discount the fact that a poll showing Obama up by +10 must, at least, indicate that the race is a tossup.
I'll include Indiana today. It's not because of that poll, incidentally. I was planning on doing that anyway.
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