Senate polls over the last three weeks has shown inexorable pushes towards the Democrats. New polls are busting open new races. It's duck-and-cover time for Republican Senators. Here's what we know:
Current configuration: 51D-49R (give or take Lieberman)
Likely Democratic pickups as of two weeks ago:
Virginia (open)
Colorado (open)
New Mexico (open)
Alaska (Stevens)
New Hampshire (Sununu)
Additional pickups likely today:
Oregon (Smith)
North Carolina (Dole)
Newly tied/close races:
Minnesota (Coleman)[note: should have been strong D, but Franken is weak candidate]
Georgia (polls have R-Chambliss up by 1-3 only)
Mississippi (polls have R-Wicker up by 1-3 only)
Kentucky (polls have R-McConnell up by 2-5 only)
Can you believe it?
Texas: Things are so bad that D-Noriega is closing in on R-Cornyn. Noriega has been polling in the low-40s for months, which is awful for Cornyn in the reddest of states.
What does this mean? Democrats could reach 60-62 (give or take Lieberman). They are likely to reach 58 or 59 at this pace. If the numbers get close to 60, the legislative deadlock in the Senate might finally be broken. What a wonder that will be.
Monday, October 06, 2008
Rocking the Senate
Posted by The Law Talking Guy at 4:07 PM
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6 comments:
Boy, you really don't like Al Franken. In his defense, he's doing something really smart recently -- tying himself to Obama. Hopefully Obama's coattails will be strong enough to pull Franken to victory.
Like I said in the post below, I can't get too excited about these numbers. My guess is that this is the high-water mark for Democrats' polling in this election. I suspect Dems will end up with 55-57 seats in the Senate when all is said and done.
No, I dislike Franken as a candidate immensely. He should at least have held some other office first before leaping to being Senator. We should have Coleman's seat in the bag with Obama up by +10 in Minnesota. But you can't nominate a professional comedian in an era of war and financial crisis and expect Middle America to take you seriously - especially not a Jewish comedian associated with New York City.
Geez LTG, I can't even start to count the number of people who ran and won a Senate seat without ever having held elective office before. Hillary Clinton comes to mind for a start. Bobby Kennedy is another.
And didn't you really like that Iraq war vet who was running against Sherrod Brown in the Ohio Senate primary?
We've gone around and around on this before. I really don't dislike Franken that much. Keep in mind Minnesotans voted for Ventura. Also, I don't think Minnesotans are as upset about that "New York Jewish comedian" thing than you might think. Franken grew up in the Twin Cities (which is more than Clinton can say about New York or Bush about Texas). Rural Scandinavian-Americans have their prejudices but anti-semitism isn't one of them. Neither are they particular prone to disliking someone for going to a good college.
Coleman is a long time St. Paul politician who used to be a Democrat and who is the incumbent. I wouldn't write Coleman off as a political asset for the Republicans up there.
OK, you're right, you can run for a Senate seat if you've never held public office before. But not if you're a wrestler or a comedian, really. Even Ventura had been a mayor before.
RBR, do you really think that a more normal Democrat would be losing to Coleman, when even Hagan is winning?
It depends on the Democrat. The Minnesota Democratic party has been in disarray for years - which is how Ventura got into the Governor's office in the first place.
You have to remember that Franken won a contested primary. So as clownish as you think he is, he did beat out another Democrat for the nomination.
In non-Franken news, I'm amazed at Hagan. What's happening in North Carolina is, I would argue, emblematic of what is happening across the country. The election is starting to look like 2006 all over again, but with a bad economy instead of a bad war. That's death to the ruling party. Bush and the GOP are the party in power, as most people see it. Bush is still the symbol of the government to most people. If Obama wins, the Dems will shift to being the 'incumbent' party. Note that during the Clinton years, the GOP was able to run against the government for years, never being punished as the "incumbent party". That's how it works.
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