This is a daily feature of this blog. For further detail, please see this post.
|State||RCP||Pollster||538||538 Win %|
The one thing that leaps out at you on today's table is that 538 now gives John McCain a slight edge in Indiana. It probably isn't anything new, however. This state appears to be a real toss-up and should give some real suspense on election day.
Otherwise, Barack Obama's position in Florida moves up a bit, after a Rasmussen poll gives him a 51-47 lead there. I, for one, hope that Florida is not close. I don't care in which direction it's not close, I just don't want a mess.
Also, most of us are considering Ohio as more or less a toss-up state. For instance, Marc Ambinder has it there in his recent post. But look at Obama's numbers there! Obama's actually been dominating the state recently. Ignoring polls that are marked with a (D) or an (R) on pollster.com, and ignoring Zogby's internet polls (which are crap), here are Obama's margins in the last twenty polls of Ohio, as per pollster.com (ordered most recent to least):
+4, +4, +5, +10, +12, +3, +4, +14, -2, +9, -1, (even), +5, +2, +5, +4, -2, +3, +3, -1
I picked twenty arbitrarily and not because the good news stops there for Obama. In fact, even if you go to thirty the news looks good. You have to consider Ohio as a lean-Obama state at this point. If anyone still considers it a toss-up, I'd like to hear why.