Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Thursday, October 23, 2008

State of the race -- 12 days to go

This is a daily feature of this blog. For further detail, please see this post.

StateRCPPollster538538 Win %
NV+3.3+3.2+1.968%
CO+5.4+5.7+5.390%
IN-0.6-1.6-1.635%
MO+2.7+1.6+1.163%
OH+6.0+4.0+2.171%
VA+7.0+8.2+6.293%
NC+2.0+3.0+1.363%
FL+1.0+2.6+2.474%


By popular demand, I'm including Indiana in this sample. I suppose you have to consider it a swing state at this point, with all three groups pegging the race at within 2%, and with 538 giving Obama a 35% chance of winning there. One also suspects that if it's this close the last weekend before the election, that a flood of Obama volunteers from Illinois will cross the border to canvass and get out the vote. If it stays this close, it's definitely a state to keep an eye on.

LTG pointed out the discrepancy in some of the numbers yesterday. This is probably due to when the various websites incorporate certain polls into their numbers as much as anything. For instance, RCP and Pollster are both showing a higher Obama lead in Ohio than 538 -- this is in part because they have both included the new Big Ten Battleground poll which shows Obama up by 12 in the state. 538 will include that poll later on tonight.

4 comments:

Raised By Republicans said...

Thanks for including Indiana. Did you all notice that the Big Ten poll (which is the first non-Zogby, non-partisan poll in Indiana in weeks) has Obama at +10?

So I guess I wasn't completely nuts to ask for it to be included. ;-)

PS: This really is a great idea to post these things daily Bell Curve! Thanks!

bell curve said...

As Dr. S points out, this is information we'd all probably look at every day anyway. But I think it's nice to have it all lumped together.

Dr. Strangelove said...

The effort is certainly appreciated, bell curve! It also adds a thread for poll discussion each day, so the old one does not grow too stale.

The Law Talking Guy said...

A ground game comment. The Battleground polls reveal about 2% of voters have already voted in Indiana and Ohio... for Obama. In Indiana, that was 0% for McCain, and Ohio about 1% for McCain.