Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Some More Perspective

Hi Everyone,

I don't want to replace Bell Curve's great daily updates but I thought I'd point out some additional information that will just make his update all that more interesting.

Right now, Real Clear Politics is listing six states as "toss ups" (too close to call):  Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana and Montana.  To put this in perspective, George W. Bush won these states in 2000 by +.01, +3.5, +12.8, +3.3, +15.7 and +25 respectively.  That these states are all now in statistical dead heats really makes things look awful for McCain.  

Florida isn't a surprise.  That state is demographically and politically polarized.  They say that the further north you go in Florida, the further south you get.  Northern Florida is a lot like southern Georgia (I invite our frequent visitor Bert Q Slushbrow to elaborate).  The other states though are states Republicans typically like to count on as "in the bag."  That they are bogged down in a close fight there is why the Republicans are getting so shrill.  They're not really screeching at independents in an attempt to get them to swing their votes.  They're outraged at the perceived disloyalty of people they always assumed were behind them.  Their angry attacks on Obama and the Democrats aren't really motivated by a desire to convince, they're motivated by the rage the orthodox feel towards the apostate.  


The Law Talking Guy said...

Although listed as tossups, they almost all lean to Obama. This is not good for McCain.

Raised By Republicans said...

I was trying to be nice to the confused old man. ;-)