This is a daily feature of this blog. For further detail, please see this post.
State | RCP | Pollster | 538 | 538 Win % |
| NV | +3.3 | +3.2 | 77% | |
| CO | +6.5 | +6.7 | +6.7 | 95% |
| IN | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.5 | 57% |
| MO | +1.0 | +1.6 | +1.1 | 63% |
| OH | +6.1 | +4.4 | +3.4 | 82% |
| VA | +7.0 | +8.1 | +6.6 | 95% |
| NC | +1.0 | +2.6 | +1.3 | 65% |
| FL | +2.2 | +2.2 | +2.5 | 75% |
Today's list is slightly different from the others because 538 has updated its polls relatively early today. As a result, all three sites are basically on the same page with their results.
Not much movement to report today. Both Virginia and Colorado are back to 95% Obama according to 538's projections, putting them again into the "can we really consider these swing states?" group. My guess is, if George Bush hadn't won these two in 2004, no one would be considering them swing states at this point.
As a side note, after these states and the states we consider "safe" Obama, guess which state has the highest chance of going for Obama, according to 538's projections? That would be Big Sky Country, Montana. Obama is helped there by the presence of Ron Paul on the ballot, who is hovering around 4% in the polls. Before you get too excited ... Obama has a 15% chance of winning there, according to 538. On the other hand, Intrade has him at 45%.
1 comment:
It's shocking that, to win, McCain must win all the "tossup" states (IN, MO, NC, FL) plus a blue state currently outside the margin of error (VA, OH, and CO are such states now).
But right now McCain not even leading in any of them.
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