Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

State of the race -- 13 days to go

This is a daily feature of this blog. For further detail, please see this post.

StateRCPPollster538538 Win %

Overall, a little tightening in the race since yesterday, but nothing extreme.


Raised By Republicans said...

Great idea Bell Curve. Would it be too much trouble to add Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Indiana to the list of states to watch? I only suggest them because there are a lot of rumors that McCain people think they have a chance in PA and a lot of Democrats are hoping to poach either WVA or Indiana in a surprise upset.

The Law Talking Guy said...

The disparity in polling averages is interesting, particularly w/r/t Ohio and NC.

bell curve said...

RbR -- Let's look at the trendlines for those three states:

West Virginia

I'm willing to add Indiana, even though it doesn't look great for Obama. He's had a great month, but he hasn't cut into McCain's lead at all there. West Virginia only seems competitive because of an ARG poll that is clearly an outlier. And I don't have any idea why McCain thinks he can compete in Pennsylvania unless he thinks they're racist (which he very well might).

Raised By Republicans said...

Yeah, I figured the numbers would not look as close as the states you already include. I was just going by the press the states are getting. I do think that the McCain people are counting on a big Bradley effect nation-wide. Just look at all the race baiting their local party organizations are doing. Their GOTV operations are heavily based on covert and overt appeals to racists.

But it's your post and your call.

The Law Talking Guy said...

A new poll has Obama leading by +10 in Indiana. (Battleground). I don't buy it really, because Battleground released a slew of midwest outlier polls with Obama up by +10 throughout the midwest, and +20 in Michigan, for example. Still, one cannot discount the fact that a poll showing Obama up by +10 must, at least, indicate that the race is a tossup.

bell curve said...

I'll include Indiana today. It's not because of that poll, incidentally. I was planning on doing that anyway.