This is a daily feature of this blog. For further detail, please see this post.
|State||RCP||Pollster||538||538 Win %|
Nothing really new today. If I had to classify these races, I'd say Colorado, Nevada and Virginia are "Likely Obama", Ohio and Florida "Lean Obama" and
I'm curious to see what (if any) the impact of Obama's infomercial will be. We might find out as soon as tomorrow.
Update: I was thinking about the race and what would happen if Obama wins the states I have as "likely Obama", splits the states I have "lean Obama", and loses all the toss-ups. Well, in that very reasonable scenario, he can even afford to lose Pennsylvania and still win the election.
(Just to reiterate, I don't think Obama is in any danger of losing Pennsylvania. 538 gives him a 99% chance of winning there and pollster.com has Obama up by 8.7 points in the state.)
Update 2: Heck, he could even lose Ohio in that scenario (20 EV). Wow.