State of the race -- 12 days to go

This is a daily feature of this blog. For further detail, please see this post.

State	RCP	Pollster	538	538 Win %
NV	+3.3	+3.2	+1.9	68%
CO	+5.4	+5.7	+5.3	90%
IN	-0.6	-1.6	-1.6	35%
MO	+2.7	+1.6	+1.1	63%
OH	+6.0	+4.0	+2.1	71%
VA	+7.0	+8.2	+6.2	93%
NC	+2.0	+3.0	+1.3	63%
FL	+1.0	+2.6	+2.4	74%

By popular demand, I'm including Indiana in this sample. I suppose you have to consider it a swing state at this point, with all three groups pegging the race at within 2%, and with 538 giving Obama a 35% chance of winning there. One also suspects that if it's this close the last weekend before the election, that a flood of Obama volunteers from Illinois will cross the border to canvass and get out the vote. If it stays this close, it's definitely a state to keep an eye on.

LTG pointed out the discrepancy in some of the numbers yesterday. This is probably due to when the various websites incorporate certain polls into their numbers as much as anything. For instance, RCP and Pollster are both showing a higher Obama lead in Ohio than 538 -- this is in part because they have both included the new Big Ten Battleground poll which shows Obama up by 12 in the state. 538 will include that poll later on tonight.