If pollster.com says he's losing North Carolina, he's in real trouble. But before Democrats get too excited: this is probably Obama's peak. I would expect this race to tighten considerably before election day. Don't take your foot off the accelerator!
Monday, October 06, 2008
It's getting bad for McCain
Posted by Bell Curve at 3:51 PM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
8 comments:
BC - it may tighten, but it also might not. I wouldn't expect tightening in the last 4 weeks just because it's the last 4 weeks. Voting, after all, has already begun in several swing states, including Ohio.
I don't think it will tighten simply because we're approaching the end. I think it will tighten because Obama's numbers are *so* high right now. They seem artificially inflated somehow.
I've been wrong before, of course...
McCain's stepped up attacks will probably have some effect. So I wouldn't be surprised if the number tightened up a bit. But the map is looking very good for Obama and very bad for McCain.
I think at this point, McCain's campaign is really working to save something for the "down ticket" Republicans more than trying to win for themselves.
RBR makes a good point about McCain running more for the down stream than for himself. That same thought crossed my mind last night as I listened to report after report on Palin and McCain's latest "strategy". He ceded states. Who does that and then expects to win? Character assassination failed in the primaries against Obama. Why does McCain think would it work in a general election with so much at stake? Yes, it worked in the past. But it is evident that it doesn't work now. So either he is getting really bad advice, or he doesn't care much. There has been nothing new or noteworthy about how he has run this campaign. And the more I read and hear about his Navy days, I firmly believe that he has set out to snub the RNC and its establishment. It is his M.O. I really think he is participating in theatre now.
When McCain picked Palin with so little vetting, my first thought wasn't "maverick" but, "He just threw the race on purpose." I don't think the RNC was that excited about him as a candidate. They didn't let him pick Lieberman has his running mate, which is what he wanted, and he has done everything since then to screw up his chances of winning this thing. He purposely picked a religious whack-job as his running mate, I swear out of a fit of anger or spite or both. That is how he operates . . . from the gut. He figured, "all right. These assholes want a religious right winger. They say I am too moderate? Let's give the SOBs some pretty, right wing eye candy."
Also notice that Republicans haven't been able to use culture wars very effectively. Gay marriage doesn't fire people up much anymore. I noted in 2004 and again in 2006 that all of that social issue stuff was the last gasp of a dying Republican breed that had reached it pinnacle with the election of Bush in 2000. And it seems I may have been correct, especially noting how strong polling in California is going against Prop 8.
So, they don't have much to run on.
USWest -- do you have a link for polling on Prop 8? I haven't seen much good news on that front, I'm afraid.
I don't. But NPR reported this morning that it is looking like the NO people have it. They said that all the NO signs were running out. But I can't seem to find the story now. weird.
Just because the numbers are higher than they have been does not mean they are "so" high. Obama is about 50% in national polls. That doesn't strike me as a strange place for a frontrunner to be.
I'm getting righter all the time. =)
Post a Comment