If you're worried for whatever reason about Obama's chances, maybe this map can reassure you. I don't consider this by any means Obama's floor, but these are all eminently winnable states.
Of these states I have in blue, I'd say the ones that are the most in trouble are (in this order) Colorado, New Hampshire, and Michigan. Of the states I have in red, the ones Obama is most likely to steal away are (in this order) Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. He can easily get to 300 electoral votes, while I have a hard time seeing McCain get above 280.
... doesn't mean McCain can't win, however.
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
A reassuring map
Posted by Bell Curve at 9:34 PM
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7 comments:
Real Clear Politics hasn't had state by state polling since before the Democratic convention and the Biden nomination. So consider that when the base polls for the map Bell Curve shows us were taken when Obama and McCain were essentially tied in the national polls. Obama's RCP average is at +6.4. Now, I'm still saying that the national polls don't really matter but there is a connection between the national poll results and the state by state - just not a perfect one. I expect that as they fluctuate they will tend to fluctuate in the same direction if not at the same rates.
The cool thing about the latest RCP national averages is that for the first time, Obama's numbers are looking similar to the numbers for generic Congressional preferences. In other words, post Convention Obama is getting a much higher percentage of the Democrats. We'll see if the Palin thing will shift that back but I suspect that the reaction to Palin will be more heavily skewed based on partisan identity rather than gender.
I believe the map represents Obama's minimum winning coalition. This is why I posted last month that COLORADO is the key to his victory. That is the most vulnerable of these minimum states. Ohio, VA, FL, NV, IN, NC, MO - these are all just bonuses. Any one of them almost guarantees an Obama victory. But he must win Colorado. (Technically, he could lose NH in this scenario and tie at 269, then win in the H of R - that is pretty certain, but I'm talking EC here).
I am reminded of what Lincoln supposedly said in the 1860 election: I would like to have God on my side; I must have Kentucky (he lost Kentucky, but by then there were four candidates and the math had changed).
It's conceivable that he loses Colorado but wins Ohio, in which case Colorado is not an absolute must. But I'd say it's more likely he wins both than Ohio and not Colorado.
Don't the Dems look like geniuses for having their convention in Denver?
Yeah, Denver was a smart choice of venue.
The Republicans were counting on putting Minnesota in play by meeting in the Twin Cities but balking at putting Pawlenty on the ticket may have screwed that one up for them.
I think that Obama is more likely to win Colorado than Ohio if not popular enough to win both. That was my point.
You could rank states according to the likelihood of Obama getting their EV for victory. When you get to 270 mark, it's probably Colorado there. So yes, Denver was a brilliant choice.
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