Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Obama Regains National Poll Lead

Well, the Palin bounce for McCain is over.  The poll trends are are mostly in Obama's favor again and when I last checked the RCP poll average, Obama had a very slim lead with the polls with McCain being ahead being largely the older polls about to drop out of the average.  State by state trends are starting to move in Obama's favor too.  

At the same time, the fly in the Palin ointment is beginning to emerge.  As soon as Palin and McCain started doing separate events, the press immediately started comparing the turnout and energy of their respective audiences.  Morning Joe on MSNBC talked about it for a while this morning.  Also, the press is beginning to ask the "where's the beef" question about Palin.  Morning Joe on MSNBC showed a clip of Palin in a "town hall meeting" with a picked crowd of Republicans.  One woman asked her to "give some specific examples of your foreign policy experience."  Palin's reply was "I'm prepared.  I know I'm prepared and if we are blessed to be elected, I know I can do that job.  And if you want to ask me specifics you go right ahead.  You can even play stump the candidate."  (crowd applauds and Palin moves on to the next question). 

Now that the economy is the story it is becoming increasingly clear that not only is Obama better prepared to handle economic problems through inspiring us but he's got more substance too.


The Law Talking Guy said...

Question for Palin: What foreign country is closest to Alaska?
Will she know it's not Russia?

The Law Talking Guy said...

The bad economic news made the "Palin Bump" end harder and faster than I expected. I didn't really expect to see these numbers emerge for another week. RCP and have different results because RCP eschews ARG polls (a Bill Bennett associated outfit) but doesn't. So a spate of ARG polls done over the last week are causing lingering McCainism in the registry, but not RCP.
I don't know if the power outages caused by Hurricane Ike have affected polling.

Palin may have energized the GOP base, but I think that's going to be it.

My favorite new line (from a hand-made sign at an anti-Palin rally in Alaska yesterday): Sarah Palin is George Bush with Lipstick.

Raised By Republicans said...

"I don't know if the power outages caused by Hurricane Ike have affected polling."

That's a good question. Central Ohio got hit very hard by high winds over the weekend and many Ohioans are without power still.

Dr. Strangelove said...

The "Palin Bump" does show one thing: it is possible for McCain-Palin to lurch ahead in the polls for a few days. No doubt they will be trying to recreate that perfect storm come the first week of November.

Dr. Strangelove said...

Oh, and some self-congratulations are in order for The Citizens. With today's postings we have now made this our most prolific posting year ever--with many months yet to go!

The Law Talking Guy said...

True, Dr.S., but right before the Palin Bump is the Obama spike (prematurely cut off by the unexpected dramatic Palin news). So both campaigns can lurch ahead. The problem with expecting "that perfect storm" is that it can't happen again. "Hurricane season" is the convention and the debates. That's when these shifts happen. Debates could cause major changes, possibly, and so could unexpected gaffes or world events. But McCain (and Obama) have no more ability to influence the outcome by doing something as dramatic as picking an unknown beauty queen for VP.

Dr. Strangelove said...

"But McCain (and Obama) have no more ability to influence the outcome by doing something as dramatic as picking an unknown beauty queen for VP."

That sounds overconfident to me. Are October Surprises really impossible?

The Law Talking Guy said...

An October Surprise is almost always some action taken by a sitting president, like a war. Neither Obama nor McCain can make things happen like this. The conventions and the debates are the really big moments that THEY control. The rest of it -gaffes, world events, hurricanes - is not something they can really plan for.

The Law Talking Guy said...

In every presidential election, you will see that the poll bounces from the conventions are the biggest number-changing of the campaigns. Stuff can still happen, particularly with the debates, but other than the debates, McCain and Obama have to rely on slower old-fashioned politicking to raise poll numbers. So we shouldn't see spikes like this again except (maybe) in relation to debates or some unforseen future event. We will see drifts instead.