Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Sunday, May 30, 2004

Free Trade Helps Reduce World Poverty

Hi Everyone,

A lot of people blame trade for the world's problems. Anti-trade Republicans and anti-trade labor unions blame trade for unemployment in the USA (and other developed countries). Anti-trade activists in the Democratic and Green parties blame globalization and world trade for increasing poverty in the developing world.

In a previous posting (see archives) I argued that the real problem for the unemployed in the USA was lack of options for retraining and changing industries.

I recently found an interesting article about how trade effects the developing world. Its by Jagdish Bhagwati and T.N. Srinivasan (two economists from Columbia and Yale respectively). And its short (12 pages) so it won't take too long to read. Here are some of the highlights:

* An overwhelming majority of the world's poor live in rural areas of China and India.

* China and India have both dramatically increased their openness to world trade in the last 25 years.

* China is the fastest growing economy in the world and India is the 11th fastest growing economy in the world.

* Both China and India have dramatically reduced their poverty levels (both have cut poverty roughly in half since the late 1970s).

The authors argue that empirical evidence directly refutes the arguments that globalization and trade are making poverty worse.

Comments? Disagreements? Controversies?

140 comments:

The Law Talking Guy said...

I should start by commending you for using empirical evidence. Most free trade advocates believe, as a matter of theology, that free trade = prosperity. Those who are opposed are accused of being "protectionist" - a slur meant to say that they are purely self-serving. Of course, most of the advocates of free trade do so not because they want to enrich the third world, but because they believe they can make money by fleecing it.

The truth about trade is usually buried. Increased international trade (the term "free trade" is propaganda that bears no relation to large amount of regulation and tarrifs that continue) displaces people and industries. It does this because it changes production patterns in developed and developing countries. Whole industries and ways of life vanish in one part of the world and new ones rise in others. Even if, in the long run, such displacements create a larger pie to share in, there is much pain in the short run.

This much is true even if capital does not go mucking about with government. However, that often happens. We observe the "race to the bottom" in an effort to save jobs. Whichever community is willing to have the worst education, dirtiest air and water, and lowest income can have the factories. When they demand a better standard of living, the jobs disappear to yet a more miserable and desperate segment of humanity. This is no way to run a planet. Increased international trade requires commitments by governments around the world to put the welfare of people above the welfare of bankers and traders. Certain areas of competition (who can have the most lax environmental regulations, or least safe working conditions) should be taken out of the arena of competition entirely. Even the most avid "free traders" have admitted that slave labor should be banned. Most will agree that child labor should be banned by refusing to allow import or export of such goods.

When we start to be realistic about what "free trade" is and try to take into account the externalities of such trade, then it would be a good idea to push it farther.

Put another way, few would doubt that industrialization had great long-term benefit for the western world, and for the whole world. But can anyone also doubt that the manner in which we did it (horrendous exploitation, including slavery and genocide on three continents) should not have been better regulated?

Raised By Republicans said...

I totally agree that the problems you identify (regulatory races to the bottom etc) are important things to watch for. However I disagree with the implication that they are an inevitable result of trade or that curtailing trade will somehow alleviate them.

I've seen a number of studies about European regulatory policy that tested expectations of a "race to the bottom" following the creation of the EEC. At the time the EEC was originally formed, many Northern Europeans feared that integrating with what were then developing economies like Spain, Portugal or Ireland would result in a "lowest common denominator" appraoch to regulation. The idea was that the rich member states would rush to lower production costs (by deregulation and wage reduction) in order to compete with poor member states. Despite this expectation, since the creation of the EEC/EU levels of regulatory protection have actually increased for all member states - rich and poor - totally refuting the "race to the bottom" expectation.

There is one HUGE problem with the "race to the bottom" scenario. It assumes that poor countries have an infinite tolerance for crappy policies like no environmental or labor protections. Either people in developing countries are assumed lack the wisdom to demand such protections or their governments lack the responsiveness to deliver them. Experience seems to show that as GDPs rise so do demands for cleaner air, safer work places and so on. Later on I'll try to find some evidence for this outside of Europe but I'm sure such evidence exists.

I would argue in any case that the real problem for poor people in developing countries is not trade itself but undemocratic governments that are unresponsive to their poeople's policy demands. Dictatorsihps around the world make a habit of exploiting their populations regardless of the level of trade. Such governments are common (but slowly dwindling) in the developing world. The problem is the type of governmental regime, not trade itself. Much of the anti-globalization movement has correctly identified that the world has a problem but totally misunderstood its cause and implied solution.

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