Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Tuesday, May 18, 2004

More Veep Thoughts

Hi Everyone,

Did someone bring up the VP speculation??? Here is a modestly updated old email I sent out to friends a couple of months ago. This was when the AWOL Bush thing was the hot story so I was looking especailly at candidates who had either served in the military or at least did not get embarassing deferments during Vietnam. I still think that's important because a comparison between Democratic "Veteran Doves" and Republican "Chicken Hawks" would be great. I think a governor would be preferable too as it is hard for two Congressmen to campaign for change - although the solid GOP control of both houses may loosen that up a bit. That said, my favorite VP candidate is Evan Bayh from Indiana - though he has draw backs.
Evan Bayh: He is in Senate Class III which means his term expires in 2005, so he's up for reelection in November. Running as VP might force him to resign his Senate seat - not a safe seat for the Dems. Bayh graduated from Indiana U in 1978 and graduated from UVA law school in 1982 so he was too young for Vietnam and too old for the Gulf war. No military service done but none really expected of his generation either. Frankly, I'm surprised this guy didn't make a serious run for the top spot on the ticket this time around. Makes me wonder if he's got problems I don't know about.

Getting a governor on the ticket would be great. They are more likely to be able to deliver their home state than a House Rep (like Gebhart). Information for governors: http://www.nga.org/cda/files/GOVLIST2004.PDF and http://www.nga.org/governors/1,1169,,00.html
The current governor of Indiana is a Democrat named Joseph Kernan (he was a "flight officier" in Vietnam and was shot down - has won a bunch of medals including the DFC). He was elected Lt. Gov and moved up when Governor O'Bannon died from a stroke. He is up for reelection in November 04. Being up for reelection in 04 is a problem as he might have drop out of the race for governor with no likely Democrat to replace him. But he might put Indiana in play - and I can't imagine Bush losing Indiana and winning Ohio or Michigan.
Ed Rendell gov of Pennsylvania. He is up for reelection in November of 2006. He served in the Army after Korea and before Vietnam. Got a BA from U. Penn in 1965 so he's another Ivy Leaguer. He pushed through a 30% reduction in property taxes for homeowners - that's gotta make him popular in the suburbs of Philly. As Mayor of Philly he balanced a city budget that seems to have been badly out of whack. His wife, Marjorie Rendell, is a Federal appeals court judge in the 3rd Circuit. Pennsylvania is going to critical too (just like Ohio) and he could help a lot there. If Bush loses PA and OH, its over even if "[GW's] brother assures [him] that [they've] got Flordia."
Brad Henry gov of Oklahoma. BA from U. Oklahoma in 1985 (so too young for Vietnam too old for Gulf war). He is in his first term and was elected in 03. So he's kind of new. He has a string of electoral victories including balancing a budget without the kind of brutal cuts Schwarzenegger has put through to avoid raising taxes (more on that on request).

The problem the Dems seem to have is that many of their likely running mates are people who are up for reelection. Here are some Democratic Senators who are NOT up for reelection in Nov 04.

Bingaman (D-NM), got BA Havard 65, JD Stanford '68. Served in Army Reserve from '68 to '74 so he might be vulnerable on that. I would bet that he was a JAG officer but there is a suspicious lack of detail on his biography website.
Bill Nelson (D-FL), Was in the Army reserve (Capt) '65-'71 but was activated from '68-'70. Doesn't mention if he was in Vietnam but does a lot of Veterans affairs stuff. Was the congressman who went up in the Shuttle in 1986. Looks like a career politician - the Grey Davis of Florida. I don't know how popular the guy is down there. He might be able to shift the balance in a close Florida race.
Ben Nelson (D-NE), He's a cornhuskin' draft dodger I'm afraid. BA Nebraska '63, MA Nebraska '65, JD Nebraska '70. Stayed in school for the duration of Vietnam and never left U. Nebraska. Nothing against that institution but it ain't Harvard so one wonders if he was staying in school because of his intellectual calling or to stay out of the draft. Can't say I blame him, but the Republicans sure wouldn't miss the chance to raise the question.
Max Baucus (D-MT), JD Stanford '70 or '71 (doesn't say). Rode his Harley-Davidson to Sturgis for the big biker ralley there in 2000. So he and Kerry could do some biker themed photo ops. No military service and probably got student deferments while at Stanford where he no doubt complained about those smelly hippies over at Berkeley. (sorry could resist the chance to stir up Stanford-Cal rivalries with Law Talkin Guy and some of our loyal visitors). If Baucus is popular in Montana that could play into a "Western" strategy that would put Bush on the defensive in the only part of the country he's really popular outside the old Confederacy.
Joseph Biden (D-DE), BA Delaware '65, JD Syracuse '68 probably got student deferment but when he was prime draft age (18-22) Vietnam hadn't really heated up yet. By the time the war got going he was probably too old. He is the ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee! Also a big friend of the environmental crowd (negate Green support for Nader?). Biden has been doing the Sunday morning talk show circuits exuding "gravitas" all over the place.
There are others to be sure anyone have any comments on any of these people or other possibilities?

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