Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, May 26, 2004

Anecdotal Report From Ohio

Hi Everyone,

A number of posts and links on this site have pointed out that Kerry is ahead in Ohio and in other swing states. I was recently in Ohio for the wedding of two good friends of mine (to each other) and have the following non-scientific observations.

The neighborhood I was in most of the time was a suburb of Columbus known as a Republican stronghold. In fact, it was once common to say that the politics in this part of Columbus "range from far right to utter darkness." In the five days I was driving around town I saw exactly one (1) Bush-Cheney campaign yard sign. I did NOT see a lot of Bush-Cheney bumper stickers either... those I did see were very old looking and could be left over from 2000.

I've heard rumors that two relatives of mine who are life long supporters of the Republican party are very dissatisfied with Bush. In both cases, it was Bush's messianic style that most turned them off. Also, both relatives generally regard Bush as incompetent. Now only a mad man would think that either of these people would ever vote for a Democrat. But it is reasonable to imagine that they (and people of like mind) would stay home or at least only vote for Congressional races.

Bush's strategy of a Nationalist/Evangelical coalition seems to have left out a constituency long critical to Republican party success...fiscal conservatives. Fiscal conservatives are a major component of Republican voting bases in Ohio and the rest of the Midwest - a fact that Southern Evangelicals are totally clueless about (more on that later). The Midwest is where the "swing states" are. Alienating these fiscal conservatives (Bob Dole or Gerald Ford style Republicans) will likely prove to be fatal for Bush.


The Law Talking Guy said...

I believe to win the midwest, Kerry must sound traditional "conservative" themes -- fiscal discipine, return to "normalcy" in foreign affairs, carefully building alliances, concentrating on the war on terrorism only. By showing that basic conservatism (small "c") tempers a progressive mindset otherwise in keeping with Middle class hopes and fears for the eeconomy, Kerry can paint Bush as a radical out of touch and out of step with society.

Raised By Republicans said...

I agree entirely! See posting about Stalwart Republicans.

Dr. Strangelove said...

Raised by Republicans writes, "Also, both relatives generally regard Bush as incompetent." That is good news! Bush tries hard to offset his obvious incompetence with the appearance of strong, moral leadership. People think, "well, maybe he's not polished, but he's honest and knows which way to go." This is why the Bush camp is trying as hard as they can to portray Kerry as an opportunist and a waffler. Yet Bush is not a strong leader. If he were, he could admit mistakes and learn from failure. Instead, he tries to maintain the illusion of confidence by staying the course, and thus he is unable to extricate himself from the ongoing trainwreck that is his foreign "policy." I hope very much that as Bush's lofty rhetoric becomes increasingly removed from the reality on the ground, more and more people will see through the illusion to recognize the incompetence and moral bankruptcy behind it.