A number of posts and links on this site have pointed out that Kerry is ahead in Ohio and in other swing states. I was recently in Ohio for the wedding of two good friends of mine (to each other) and have the following non-scientific observations.
The neighborhood I was in most of the time was a suburb of Columbus known as a Republican stronghold. In fact, it was once common to say that the politics in this part of Columbus "range from far right to utter darkness." In the five days I was driving around town I saw exactly one (1) Bush-Cheney campaign yard sign. I did NOT see a lot of Bush-Cheney bumper stickers either... those I did see were very old looking and could be left over from 2000.
I've heard rumors that two relatives of mine who are life long supporters of the Republican party are very dissatisfied with Bush. In both cases, it was Bush's messianic style that most turned them off. Also, both relatives generally regard Bush as incompetent. Now only a mad man would think that either of these people would ever vote for a Democrat. But it is reasonable to imagine that they (and people of like mind) would stay home or at least only vote for Congressional races.
Bush's strategy of a Nationalist/Evangelical coalition seems to have left out a constituency long critical to Republican party success...fiscal conservatives. Fiscal conservatives are a major component of Republican voting bases in Ohio and the rest of the Midwest - a fact that Southern Evangelicals are totally clueless about (more on that later). The Midwest is where the "swing states" are. Alienating these fiscal conservatives (Bob Dole or Gerald Ford style Republicans) will likely prove to be fatal for Bush.
Wednesday, May 26, 2004
Posted by Raised By Republicans at 4:40 PM