What do candidate travel plans tell us?

Both Kerry and Bush are doing a lot of traveling in swing states like Ohio and Michigan. The media report these trips as visits to the entire state without much analysis of what PART of each state the two candidates visit. I found it particularly annoying that CNN reporters described Lebanon, Ohio (in SW Ohio) as being in the "rust belt." Lebanon is not in the heavily industrial NE but in the more agricultural SW. This not to say that Lebanon never had a factory in it, but a comparison between Lebanon and Warren (in NE Ohio) will reveal enormous differences.

Bush's trip to Ohio was a bus ride from the Michigan border down through Western Ohio passing through Dayton and Lebanon to Cincinnati. Essentially, Bush drove down I-75, a primarily rural, agricultural area of Ohio until he got to Dayton where the Cincinnati-Dayton sprawl zone breaks up the corn and soybean fields. This route took Bush through the Republican stronghold of the state. Bush's drive through Michigan the day before, similarly avoided Democratic strongholds like Flint and non-suburban Detroit. Instead, Bush routed his visit to suburban and rural areas of southern Michigan which voted for him in 2000. This was a trip to "energize the base."

Kerry's trips to Ohio seem likewise intended to "energize the base." Kerry's appearances tend to be in places like Akron, Cleveland or Youngstown. These are classic "rust belt" cities which have seen heavy manufacturing economies erode away over the last 30 years. These are also Democratic strongholds where unions still have a great deal of influence.

Both candidates also take steps to pack audiences with known supporters.

The next time a candidate comes to your state, log onto the David Leip election atlas (see link to the right) and find the map that breaks down the 2000 election in your state by county. See if Kerry doesn't tend to go to counties that voted for Gore and if Bush doesn't tend stay in counties that voted for him.

The implication of all this is that this election is going be much more about which side gets more of their people to the polls than about actually convincing undecided people with reasoned debate. Expect lots of negative personal attacks without much substance. : - (

But don't let yourself think that this means there are no substantive differences. There are huge differences. But both parties have figured out that most people have already made up their minds so their strategies are about getting their known supporters to vote in bigger numbers.