Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Sunday, October 31, 2004

Raised By Republican's Election Predictions

Hi Everyone,

A number of friends and relatives of mine have asked me what the results will be on election night 2004. I could give you a bunch of reasons why I expect the outcome that I do. But I've said most of it here already and besides, the one thing the mainstream media is GUARANTEED to talk your ear off about is the horse race.

Instead, I'd like to talk about the policy outcomes will likely be if either Bush or Kerry win. After all, that's the only reason we should really care about the election at all, right?

If Bush wins: If George W. Bush is reelected, it will be seen by the Republicans as a massive endorsement of both the war in Iraq and a religious conservative social agenda at home. Trust me, even if the election is VERY close, the Republicans will behave as if it was a huge mandate. The 1996 "Contract With America" election was a narrow victory (in terms of national popular vote) in an election with the lowest turnout in American history yet the Republicans took it as evidence that the entire nation was behind their agenda 100%. In policy terms in 2004-2008 this will mean a number of things: 1) Patriot Act II (to include executive branch power to revoke the citizenship of any "enemy combatant" even if they are natural born citizens) 2) Privatization of social security (to inflate economic growth while the war in Iraq and tax cuts suck capital out of the economy). 3) Supreme Court Justice John Ashcroft (he may not get confirmed but he's who Bush wants). 4) Airstrikes against Iran's nuclear sites before they come online, from bases in Iraq and aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf 5) The Democrats will win control of BOTH houses of Congress in 2006 and 2007 - 2008 will be dominated by Congressional investigations of Halliburton's no bid contracts, the CIA agent leak, Enron and energy company anti-trust violations etc.

If Kerry wins: If Kerry wins, the Republicans will almost certainly retain control of at least one house of Congress and possibly both. His electoral victory will mainly result in the cessation of the Theocratic/Neo-con Republican agenda. As the President presiding over a majority Republican Congress, Kerry's ability to get his agenda through will be very limited. Sure, the curtains covering up the "obscene" bare breasted statue of Justice in the Department of Justice building will come down, but not much legislation. The result will be exactly what the Founding Father's had in mind, a government so incapacitated by institutional and partisan divisions that our civil liberties will be relatively safe from abuse. Republicans won't lose out much, there won't be a new law making gay marriage mandatory or anything like that. But they won't be able to impose their narrow minded agenda on the rest of us anymore. Stalemate! This will allow a cooling off period. The country can get back to normal FINALLY after 9/11. We've been whipped up into frenzy after frenzy by the Bush people for so long I think Americans will welcome some good old fashioned Washington Gridlock for a change!

Comments? Discussion?


US West said...

You forgot to mention that Kerry won't bomb Iran or leave North Korea to its own devices. I think he will also work differently in Iraq.

His domestic agenda will be weak with a Republican controled Congress (can LTG tell me when gerrymandering suddenly became acceptable? I thought it was deemed unconstitutional by the Court years ago.) I doubt, however, it will be stalemate. That won't get Democrats back to the White House in 08. But this follows the typial pattern. Democrats get things humming, Republicans come in and mess it all up, leaving Democrats to clean it up. And RBR, there is no going back to "normal". Normal changed on the Day GWB got elected, not on 9/11 as some would have us believe.

Raised By Republicans said...

Yes, not bombing Iran and engaging N. Korea will be Kerry acomplishments. I should have mentioned that.

My take is that Americans nearly always over estimate the power of the President to move on his agenda in the face of a Congress controlled by the opposition. Typical American voters think the President is the most powerful man in America. He's not really. He's the most powerful man in Iraq certainly and most of the rest of the world too. But in America, he's behind the Speaker the House and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The problem is now that the Republicans (specifically one faction of the Republican party) controls the White House and both houses of Congress, Bush's power is exagerated far beyond that of a normal President. Knocking one of the three legs out from under the Theocratic/GOP stool will go a long way towards returning us to something like a normal American way of doing things (or rather not doing things).

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