As the race comes down to the final stretch, I can identify four kinds of Republicans and how they should vote. Let's take a look.
1. Social conservatives, especially the kind for whom this is the most important issue. The anti-gay, anti-Roe v. Wade crowd. These people should (and will) vote overwhelmigly for Bush.
2. The extremely rich who care above all about their bottom line. There are some obscenely rich people who are fervent Kerry supporters (George Soros comes to mind) but I'm talking about people who like Bush almost exclusively for what he did for their wallet. These people will vote Bush, as well they should.
3. Fiscal conservatives. The people I've referred to as "economically Republican". The small government, low taxes people. These people are probably split -- Bush's record is not that of a fiscal conservative, but would they vote for a Massachusetts senator? One fiscal conservative who struggled with this decision for a long time is Andrew Sullivan, and he has finally endorsed Kerry.
4. Lifelong Republicans who will always vote Republican, even if there is no issues-based reason to do so. You know these people. They break down into several categories:
(a) Those who think Bush is tougher on terror
(b) Those who think Bush has been a social moderate / fiscal conservative
(c) Those who believe the propaganda and are scared of Kerry
etc. I fear that category number 4 is the largest one. If you're a Republican reading our blog, and you're going to vote Bush, make sure you're not in category 4 before you cast your ballot. One easy way to find out is to go to PresidentMatch.com and take the survey.
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Four kinds of Republicans
Posted by Bell Curve at 11:06 AM
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2 comments:
One could quibble about what the factions are but you more or less identified the major ones.
I would also add independents who are thinking of voting for Bush because of the "don't change leaders during a war" logic. Frankly, I can think of no worse justification for voting than that.
By that logic, all an incompotent or tyrannical leader would have to do to stay in power forever would be to provoke one crisis after another. One could argue that this war was not provoked by Bush but that can only be argued if one buys the total falacy that Iraq had anything to do with 9/11. It did not. Bill O'Riley may say otherwise between gropings but Iraq had no connection to 9/11.
Do not vote for someone by "default." Vote for the candidate that is your best strategic option - i.e. the candidate closest to you on policy positions with the best chance of winning.
Ah, the old "don't change horses mid-Apocalypse" thing. Yeah, that type of person (if he/she is a Republican, not an independent) would fit into my type 4. I wasn't trying to classify all Bush voters, just Republicans.
I am heartened to see some lifelong Republicans simply decide to sit this one out or vote for Badnarik, to show that they don't like the way the Republican party is heading. I hope everyone takes the time to research this election that much, instead of just having a pro-Bush (or anti-Bush) knee-jerk reaction.
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