Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Monday, October 04, 2004

Pollwatching and "Momentum Shift"

Two new polls, Newsweek, and Gallup (!) show a dramatic change in dynamics in favor of John Kerry. Both had Bush up by as much as 12 pts in early September.
Gallup now shows a dead tie (49-49) and Newsweek has a Kerry lead (49-46).
So, the first debate certainly had an effect on undecided and very weak-leaning voters.
Of course, those of us at The Citizens have known for a month that the media was overstating the Bush lead (e.g., Zogby never showed Bush with more than a 3 point lead). So the momentum shift is much smaller than the media will now make it appear. Kerry will now benefit from inaccurate reporting ("a 10 point swing for Kerry") based on the highly suspect Gallup poll (which probably, secretly, re-tooled its formula and now has to report a "shift" rather than admit its prior polls were just badly done). The real shift in numbers is 3-5% tops. The real shift in media coverage is 180-degree u-turn. Typical.

1 comment:

Raised By Republicans said...

American Research Group has a poll out today (10/6) that has Kerry ahead by 1 point among LIKELY voters and ahead by 3 points among registered voters.