Poll Update Going Into Second Debate

Hi Everyone,

Here is a little poll update going into the second debate. American Research Group has posted results for their polls in Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Kerry is ahead or exactly tied in all four states. The polls are of likely voters.

In Ohio, Kerry leads 48% to 47%. The trend shows that Kerry is close to recovering most of the ground he lost in the weeks running up to the RNC with all the swift boat ads. Kerry also holds a commanding 51% to 43% lead among independents (who make up a quarter of the electorate in Ohio). Democrats and Republicans are equally represented in Ohio.

In Pennsylvania, Kerry leads 48% to 46%. Kerry leads by a wider margin among independent voters and Kerry's lead among independents is growing. Independents are a smaller share of the electorate than in Ohio but Democrats outnumber Republicans in Pennsylvania.

In Florida, Kerry leads 47% to 45%. ARG has had Kerry ahead in Florida in every poll its taken since May. Kerry leads among indepdents 49% to 41% with independents making up a fifth of the electorate.

In New Hampshire, Kerry and Bush are tied at 47%. Kerry was behind in September by 4 points so the trend - as with Ohio and Pennsylvania - seems to be that Kerry has regained much of the ground he lost int he swift boat/RNC period. Kerry leads among independents 53% to 40% (the biggest lead among independents in the four states discussed here). Also, independents outnumber Democrats in New Hampshire and are nearly as populous as the Republicans!

If Kerry is seen as the winner of tonight's debate, next week's polls could really open up for Kerry as undecided voters start to break for the challenger (as they usually do).