Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Prognostication Time

It's all well and good to bloviate, but it's getting time for The Citizens to see if they can call the elections right. Many political sites still list the balance of races in play as "tossups." Sure, that may be the best scientific answer (i.e., the model has a margin of error, so there you go) but it's also not much more useful or interesting than cowpie bingo.

Go out on a limb, Citizens.

My predictions:
Senate: 50(D)-49(R)-1(I). Democrats will pick up Montana, Penn, Ohio, RI, Virginia, and Missouri. Lieberman, an Independent, will take Connecticut in a close race. Not clear who will control the Senate if it is in Lieberman's hands to decide (his promises to caucus with Dems are not convincing).

Reasons: A trend in Virignia and Missouri developing this week should put McCaskill and Webb over the top. Other states show solid, steady poll numbers for Dems. My prediction of a Lamont victory made earlier is now withdrawn, although I think the reasoning still favors a stronger Lamont showing than the polls currently predict.

House: Democrats will pick up around 220-25 seats.

Reasons: Best polling indicates that the Dems seem certain to get 10-12 pickups, with 15-25 "tossups" remaining. Assuming the Republican GOTV efforts do not meet the fantastical expectations some have suggested, this still leaves Democrats picking up 20 seats or above.

Ultimately, the "generic ballot" favoring Dems is just too much of a tidal wave to overcome. Self-identified independents and Democrats look alike in the polls. Outside of the deep South, this means wide Dem victories.

And the rest of you?


Anonymous said...

Your challenge answered:

The House of Representatives: Democrats gain control with a healthy margin; I predict 229 seats. There are a whole new chunk of seats that are vulnerable (Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado?!!) and at least a few of those will go over.

Senate:50-49-1, Republicans Keep control. I say this because I think your reasoning is sound in all but Viriginia. I hope I'm wrong, but I think Virginians are very comfortable with a racist as a senator than a Democrat. I think Democrats lose New Jersey, Tennessee and Virginia but pick up the rest that are on the table. Including Missouri.

I say all of this with this *gigantic* caveat: One must never underestimate the Republicans ruthlessness and their ability to steal an election. It just might be too hard to rig on the house side.


// posted by The Acting President

Anonymous said...

I think a pick up in Virginia is likely. Allen's campaign continues to implode. The local news today will be running stories of Allen campaign workers beating a protestor to the ground and putting him in a head lock. Allen's western Virginia base may be OK with that but the northern Virginia suburbs will not respond well to it. Virginia's election is going to be decided in the suburbs and ex-urbs of Fairfax County.

I'm not confident about Missouri though. And I agree with both LTG and Acting President that Tennessee is likely a lost cause. That translates into 49 D, 50 R and Lieberman.

The House is more likely to go our way and BIG too. I'm reluctant to pick a number but I'll guess that the Democrats will gain 20 seats.


If Jim Leach (R) in the IA-02 loses it's time to relax and enjoy the show. Leach is a 30 yr incumbent who voted against the Iraq invasion but who represents the most Democratic district in Iowa. He's currently tied.

If Gene Schmidt (R) in the OH-02 loses it's time to break out the good stuff! Schmidt is the bonehead who advocated "discussing" storage of nuclear waste in her SW Ohio district. She's currently a couple of points ahead.

If NE-03 goes Democrat, it's lights out for the GOP. This could happen but it's unlikely. The local Republican was supposed to be safe but is getting rescue visits from both Dick "I thought he was a bird" Cheney and President Strategery. The Democrat is a 3rd generation rancher who was a competitive rodeo bull rider and has movie star good looks. Think Jack Kennedy meats Buffalo Bill Cody.

If the Republicans pick up the senate seat in New Jersey or any house seats, it's going to be closer than the experts thought. New Jersey is generally a blue state but Menendez has been the subject of some corruption investigations.

If De Wine (R-OH) wins reelection it means the GOP hacked the Diebold machines again. I've heard from several sources that the national GOP has pulled all their planned TV ad buys in support of DeWine. If he wins anyway, I'll smell a rat.  

// posted by RBR

Anonymous said...

We should also watch OH-01 (also in SW Ohio). The GOP incumbent there is currently two points down. SW Ohio is the Republican stronghold of the state. This part of Ohio is essentially southern in it's political views (the land of the boll weval where the laws are medeival!). If OH-01 and -02 are even in play it's bad bad news for the Ohio GOP.  

// posted by RBR

Dr. Strangelove said...

OK, I'll go out on a limb: I predict the Democrats + Independents will end up with a total of 230 seats in the House and 52 in the Senate, picking up 7 Senate seats: Montana, Penn., Ohio, R.I., Virginia, Missouri, and even Tennessee.

Given that the number of seats rated as toss-ups are small but the margins of error are not, I suspect the toss-ups are statistically more likely to break unevenly than evenly. With what little faith in American democracy remains to me after six years of Bush, I have optimistically guessed the break will favor the Democrats + Independents rather than the Enemy.

Anonymous said...

I think the Kerry flap will hurt. That's another reason to be, er, conservative. 

// posted by LTG

Anonymous said...

RE: Kerry

I can't believe this bonehead. He says, at a time when we are generating momentum, one of the most caustic and stupidly phrased comments in an election I can remember. He is also speaking on behalf of a pointless candidate whose election is an impossibility. In that venue, Kerry hands the rabid base of the Republican Party the first blood thous hounds have seen. Does he not understand politics? Or is he working for the enemy?

I only say the last part as a joke, but my god. What a moron.

// posted by The Acting President

Anonymous said...

He mispoke AND has been consistently taken out of context. Obviously that doesn't change the fact that Republicans have pounced and that the media are playing along (they love a good fight). But ease off on Kerry.

Also, what he said accidently and out of context wasn't half as bad as what Boehner (R-OH) said intentionally and clearly. Boehner said that we shouldn't blame Rumsfeld for all the problems in Iraq. Blitzer asked him why not since Rummy was in charge of the military. Boehner (R-OH) said that it was actually the generals who were responsible on the ground not Rumsfeld. Now that's typical of the kind of buck passing the Republicans do but it's not getting delt with by the media.

Democrats spoke up about it (if you look at the Democratic websites you'd see references to it). But Democrats are not "going negative" by in large in the last week. The CW is that if you go negative late, it's because your losing or at least think you could lose. 

// posted by RBR

Dr. Strangelove said...

Predictions Scorecard

51-49 Senate: perfect!
220-225 House: too low.

50-50 Senate: tad pessimistic.
222 House: too low.

Acting President
51-49 Senate: correct!
229 House: looking good!

Dr. S
52-48 Senate: too optimistic.
230 House: looking very good!