I have a confession to make: I have become a polls junkie. The unprecedented availability of data, the closeness of the races in the House and Senate, and the chance that the Democrats might finally win something have all combined to fuel my addiction. I have checked far too many political analysis websites far too frequently this Fall.
When you check them more than twice a day, you know it is bad.
I am resolved to go cold turkey after Election Day (yeah right!) so I shall soon bid farewell to my favorite haunts (well at least until 2008) listed here:
pollingreport.com
www.electionprojection.com
electoral-vote.com
realclearpolitics.com
New York Times politics
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
Iowa Electronic Markets (House, Senate, Congress)
(Many of these sites were originally tips from others--thanks a lot LTG.)
Well, it is a relief to get this out in the open! Now I can leave this foolish addiction behind! Though I suppose I shall have to check these websites on Election Night to watch the results come in: might as well get the payoff, after all these weeks of fretting! And I suppose it wouldn't hurt to give them a couple of days to digest the results and then check them all a couple days afterward to see the final tallies. And then, come to think of it, maybe I should check in just one more time after that to read their post-mortems on the election, so I can feel a real sense of closure. Oh, and then...
Monday, November 06, 2006
Hi, My Name is Dr. Strangelove, and I'm a Polls Junkie
Posted by Dr. Strangelove at 3:50 PM
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7 comments:
Hi Dr. Strangelove!
I too am a polls junkie. I've been checking the same polls over and over again just to see if there's anything that jumps out at me.
I don't see how it will hurt if we check the polls just every now and again, right? I mean as long as we have it under control. I mean, I could quit any time I want to but checking the polls makes me more sociable at parties.
FYI: I recently attended a Democratic rally in which the headliner was Barak Obama. That guy is good but I don't think he's quite ready for a Presidential run (although, he seemed tired and it was one of the last days of a long campaign tour).
// posted by RBR
Wes Clark in 2008.
Just sayin'...
// posted by Bell Curve
You guys have wayyyyyy too much time on your hands.
And RBR, I don't know what parties you are going to, but you won't get girls clicking off polling data!
Ha: I can imagine it, RBR all suave with a glass wine : "Hey hot stuff, what's your poll? Zogby or IEM?"
// posted by USWest
Zogby!? Pahleaaaase. That's so 2000. Everyone who's clued in knows that Mason-Dixon has the good stuff.
As for success with the women, that kind of depends on the women, right? I find the really hot prospects like a man who knows how to use his poll numbers.
// posted by RBR
I'm a big pusher of IEM. Not a poll, but a market-based analysis, or rather a market-based experiment. That site is predicting that the most likely outcome is Dem victory in the house only, second most likely is Dem victory in both houses, third most likely is Dem victory in neither.
What jumps out at me is that the Allen/Webb race remains too close to call, while McCaskill and Tester (MT and MO) appear to have pulled out slim 2-3% leads steadily.
// posted by LTG
I think that polling data can be cool, but of course the important thing is to listen and look interested.
-Seventh Sister
// posted by Anonymous
Right, "listen and look interested." Check. Er, what's the margin of error on that one? Especially the "listen" part.
// posted by RBR
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