In the second post-Rumsfeld casualty of the 2006 elections, Frist has decided not to run for President in 2008. Plainly, whatever he says about "sabbatical " or "family", he is taking heat for being unable to keep the Senate in Republican hands.
I think also that he realizes that his pro-stem-cell position kills him with the religious right, and the Republicans will, amazingly, swing even further to the right in 2008. The argument: did Bush lose moderates or the base? seems to have an obvious solution - moderates. But "the base" wants to be fed. And Congressional Republicans will have to feed them with rhetoric because they can't give legisltaion. That puts Frist in a terrible bind.
So who's running in 2008 for the GOP? McCain, Giuliani, er, Jeb Bush?
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Frist Declines to Run for President
Posted by The Law Talking Guy at 9:04 AM
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Frist is also saying he's retiring from politics altogether (amid ethical controversies).
Frist may be the first of several Republicans to retire. It's no fun to be in the minority. In 1994-1996 there were a bunch of Democrats who either switched parties or quit. The GOP is hardly a big tent so party switching isn't likely. Quitting on the other hand...
This could all translate into even more open seats on the Republican side in 2008.
// posted by RBR
I doubt anyone would be dumb enough to run Jeb Bush under the current circumstances. At least I hope not . . .or then again . . maybe it's wouldn't be such a bad idea.
// posted by UNWest
The GOP is in an interesting situation right now. Who do you run? Not necessarily someone the Dems could easily tie to Bush, so it seems Jeb might be out. I think McCain and Giuliani are longshots because the base won't go nuts over them. There's no way Mitt Romney will go over well with the evangelicals. Who does that leave? Brownback? (shudder)
// posted by Bell Curve
Or Huckabee from Arkansas. Forgot about him. Really likeable guy, great politician. There is that little story of the triple-wide "manufactured home" he lived in for a while, but he's able to laugh about it, which will help him.
// posted by Bell Curve
McCain has the biggest name for a general election, followed by Giuliani. McCain has issues with the religious right, but Giuliani is pro-choice, which is even worse on that score. I'm not sure what they will do. Pataki? Pro-choice. Jeb Bush can carry Florida. He's their best bet.
// posted by LTG
Back in 2004, Jeb Bush said he would not run in 2008. Condoleeza Rice said "No" clearly in 2005. Now Frist is out. Assuming they don't change their minds again. So who's left?
Duncan Hunter: He says he's running, but nobody's listening.
Sam Brownback: He's likely to run, but I have to hope he's too right-wing for the nation
Newt Gingrich: just when you thought the man couldn't fall any lower... his run would turn the campaign into a circus.
Rudy Giuliani: I cannot imagine how a thrice-divorced, pro-choice, pro-stem cell, pro-gay philanderer from New York City could possibly win the Republican primary.
George Pataki: long-serving Governor of New York... liberal, but perhaps not too liberal to win.
Mitt Romney: anti-gay, anti-choice, pro-death penalty Governor from Massachusetts. He may have a good chance. He may be McCain's best competition from the Right wing.
Rick Perry: Texas governor. Hey, it's happened before. And he's just nasty enough that he might win.
Chuck Hagel: Nebraska Senator, former Vietnam Vet. Would stand a good chance, if he runs... but I think McCain has a better shot.
Christie Todd Whitman I don't think she can win the primary, but she may give it a go.
John McCain: he has a high profile and enjoys support from independent voters. He is the odds-on favorite in my book.
The fact that Gingrich is serious about running should tell us a lot about how sparse the GOP candidate pool is. If there were another credible, non-Bush dependent conservative in the mix, Gingrich probably wouldn't run.
I don't think Gingrich is viable outside the GOP. When he was in power there were a lot reasons to dislike the guy.
Also, he had a nasty divorce/affair situation. He even had to be forced to pay child support and alimony. The Religious Conservatives won't like him. Oh, and he's got corruption issues (remember why he left the Speaker's post in the first place!?).
At this point, I'd bet the GOP primary voters will take to Brownback. He'll try to run as a "compasionate conservative" and say he not a far right winger because of his attention to Africa.
// posted by RBR
If that happens, do you think there's a chance of a 3rd party McCain/Lieberman ticket?
// posted by Bell Curve
No chance of those two on the same ticket.
// posted by LTG
McCain/Lieberman in any combination probably won't happen because I doubt either one wants to be second bannana. Besides, they're both too loyal to the Republican party to go as an Independent ticket in a national election.
// posted by RBR
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