Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Monday, August 18, 2008

Last Chance for VP Bets

Very soon we will know whom Obama and McCain have chosen to be their running mates. So this is The Citizens' last opportunity to place their bets on who will be the VP candidates for each party. Here are my picks, for your amusement. Note: I do not think either pick is likely--no better than 1 in 3--I just think these are more likely than anyone else.

Hillary Clinton.
I know this possibility has been nearly universally dismissed by the pundits. I agree that putting Hillary on the ticket is not necessary for party unity, and I believe Obama will win the independent vote without her. In the past month, however, I feel the chances that Obama will win the independent vote by a significant margin have greatly diminished. I suspect this election will be another battle of the bases. Despite her flaws, choosing Clinton would excite the Democratic base as no other realistic VP choice could.

Mike Huckabee.
The surprise winner out of Iowa is the only Republican who can make a dent in the "enthusiasm gap" with Obama. McCain knows he will be edged out of the Independent vote by Obama, so he needs the Evangelical base to come through for him. This is why McCain has been sliding to the right on almost every hot-button issue. Despite his flaws, choosing Huckabee would excite the Republican base as no other realistic VP choice could.


Raised By Republicans said...

I don't think Clinton will be the pick for the Democrats. We could debate back and forth about whether Hillary helps or hurts Obama in an election if she were on the ticket but one thing is for sure...If Hillary were VP, Obama would have to fight like crazy to control his own presidency if he had to deal with both Clintons inside his administration. Would they take orders from him? I doubt it. I strongly suspect that such an arrangement would be unworkable and I think Obama knows it.

I don't have any idea who Obama will pick. I think his best choice would someone at least as old as Hilary (so as not to be a threat to her future ambitions) and preferably a white male with a more hawkish image. Someone like Wesley Clark or former Republican Jim Webb.

I don't think McCain has any good choices and I really WISH he would pick Huckabee. I've heard really bad stories about Huckabee and his family. One son embezzles money from the young Republicans and the other one roams around the neighborhood and kills stray cats. And he's one of those conservative bible thumpers that scares the normal people.

If McCain picks Huckabee, Obama will win the suburbs no matter who he picks. If Obama picks Clinton, Obama will win the burbs with a 70-30 split in his favor among women. If he picks someone else, he'll win by bleeding off support from secular, moderate Republicans.

The Law Talking Guy said...

If Clinton is the nominee, I will be shocked. The "dream team" was a Clintonite invention where she was #1 and he was #2. Obama supporters NEVER saw Clinton being on the ticket as a dream team. More of a nightmare team.

The buzz is all about Biden. Buzz is usually wrong. I suggest Richardson. He's still a very solid pick.

Raised By Republicans said...

Richardson would be good. Contrast McCain who got captured with Richardson who lead a delegation to rescue a CIA pilot who got shot down.

Bell Curve said...

I wouldn't mind Clinton anymore. I would have a few months ago.

I still have hope for Schweitzer, though that hope is dwindling. And I don't believe for a second that it will be Biden.

The Law Talking Guy said...

Romney is the best bet for McCain. He's good on the economy AND puts Michigan in play.

The Law Talking Guy said...

I actually agree with Bell Curve. Clinton no longer seems like a dealbreaker to me, as she once did. However, I still think it muddies up his message. I think he may need someone with union connections. Tom Harkin, anyone?

Dr. Strangelove said...

Harkin? But don't you think putting a traditional Washington insider on the ticket would muddy up Obama's message of change even more? Not only is Harkin very "establishment" but--not to mince words--he's also just another boring old white guy.

Dr. Strangelove said...

Romney would hurt McCain with the Evangelical base.

The Law Talking Guy said...

Harkin is not very "establishment", although he's been around for a while. He would pull in union workers in Ohio and Indiana for sure.

Romney would hurt McCain a little with the Evangelical base, but I suspect only a little. He would help out a lot more in other ways. McCain may have tried to re-set expectations by floating the idea of a pro-choice Republican lastweek. Romeny is no longer pro-choice.

Raised By Republicans said...

Not trying to pick a fight here but seriously, Hillary Clinton is about as "insider" as you can get.

Harkin is way TOO old. He's also really really Iowan. For good or ill, he comes across as everyone's grandpa. He even wears worn out shirts and stuff (I got to meet the guy once back in 2006).

Dr. Strangelove said...

RbR, you are completely right that Hillary Clinton is, "about as 'insider' as you can get," and I did not mean to imply otherwise. But I was not clear. When I claimed Harkin might muddy Obama's message "even more" I only meant that--whatever the reality--Harkin just *looks* the part of the typical old white male politician. It's not much of a difference, I know, but at least Hillary wears a pants suit :-)

The Law Talking Guy said...

Aw, what's wrong with Grampa Harkin?

Raised By Republicans said...

Grandpa Harkin is a very nice old man. I just don't think "nice old man" is really the image Obama should project.

Harkin's not going to impress people with as being the wizened old chieftain type. He's not the aging and trusted leader, he's just this nice old man.