This is a daily feature of this blog. For further detail, please see this post.
|State||RCP||Pollster||538||538 Win %|
There we go -- this is just about the last set of polls. Tomorrow I'll do a run-down of what all the various sites are predicting so we can go back and see how they did later on.
But here's my guess as to what the predictions will look like: Obama gets all the Kerry states plus IA, NM, VA, CO, NV, OH, and one or more of NC, FL, IN, MO. Some would argue that ND and MT are still in play (and some would even add AZ (!) to that list) but I don't expect we'll see any major sites predicting those states going blue. That would mean a prediction of Obama getting somewhere between 311 and 375 electoral votes. If you're interested in popular vote predictions, I think they'll settle around a 52%-46% Obama victory.
Let me be clear about this: I am not predicting the outcome of this election. I am trying to predict what the predictions will look like tomorrow. (Is that weird?)