Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Monday, November 03, 2008

State of the race -- 1 day to go

This is a daily feature of this blog. For further detail, please see this post.

StateRCPPollster538538 Win %

There we go -- this is just about the last set of polls. Tomorrow I'll do a run-down of what all the various sites are predicting so we can go back and see how they did later on.

But here's my guess as to what the predictions will look like: Obama gets all the Kerry states plus IA, NM, VA, CO, NV, OH, and one or more of NC, FL, IN, MO. Some would argue that ND and MT are still in play (and some would even add AZ (!) to that list) but I don't expect we'll see any major sites predicting those states going blue. That would mean a prediction of Obama getting somewhere between 311 and 375 electoral votes. If you're interested in popular vote predictions, I think they'll settle around a 52%-46% Obama victory.

Let me be clear about this: I am not predicting the outcome of this election. I am trying to predict what the predictions will look like tomorrow. (Is that weird?)


Dr. Strangelove said...

Forty years ago, protesters on the streets of Chicago shouted that, "The whole world is watching." They were probably wrong. There are few moments in a time of peace when an event can occur that may change the course of history.

No matter which way tomorrow goes, it may well prove to be far less significant than it appears to be from this vantage point. But this may also be one of those events that changes history. And this time, the whole world is watching.

Raised By Republicans said...

Not to quibble, Dr. S but we aren't at peace. We are currently fighting two wars. Not to mention the CIA's dirty little rendition operations. You bet the world is watching. They need us to pull our collective heads out of our collective asses and turn the Republican party out on their ears.

eiscremeluvr said...

Re: the conclusion of the main post, it's not weird for someone named "Bell Curve"... :)