I don't really like to do predictions myself, but I thought I'd share some of the predictions from various sources on the web. We'll see later on tonight or tomorrow how accurate the predictions were. Meanwhile, if you'd like to predict the outcome yourself, feel free to do so in the comments! My shorthand: JK = the John Kerry states. So when writing up a prediction, I will generally write JK + other states to mean the prediction for Obama.
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fivethirtyeight.com: Obama 353, McCain 185. JK + IA, NM, CO, OH, VA, FL, NC, NV.
Technically speaking, theirs is a probabilistic model that gives Obama 348.6 EV, but the outcome above allots each state to the winner the majority of the time. Nate Silver adds that Missouri and Indiana are predicted to go to McCain -- but just barely. 538 also projects the popular vote to go 52.3% Obama, 46.2% McCain.
RealClearPolitics: Obama 338, McCain 200. JK + IA, NM, CO, OH, VA, FL, NV.
RCP actually wimps out and lists 128 EVs as "toss-up" (this includes Arizona, Montana, and Georgia) but these are how the states are favored, according to them. Note: this is the same as Karl Rove's map. As for popular vote, RCP is predicting 52.1% Obama, 44.5% McCain.
Intrade: Obama 364, McCain 174. JK + IA, NM, CO, OH, VA, FL, NC, MO, NV.
I like to include this one because it's interesting to see how the markets predict things. Interestingly, this is the same map as predicted by pollster.com, when leaners are added in. Speaking of pollster.com, they predict a popular vote spread of 51.9% Obama, 44.3% McCain.
Al Giordano: Obama 307, McCain 231. JK + IA, NM, CO, VA, NV, NC, NE-2.
Al is more conservative than the others, and is worried about voters in Ohio and Florida not turning out for Obama. On the other hand, according to his post, he thinks there might be a big surprise ... Georgia.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Prediction thread
Posted by Bell Curve at 12:05 PM
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1 comment:
OK, I'm going to go out on a limb here. Based on the huge turnout reports CNN and MSNBC are reporting (there's talk of this being the high turnout levels since 1908), I'm guessing we're looking at one of the better scenarios for Obama right now. So, I'm going to predict that Obama will win all the states that Real Clear Politics Predicts with their "no toss ups" model (338) plus Indiana and North Carolina for a total of 364. I think Obama is going to ride a wave of massive African American and youth turnout to edge out McCain in North Carolina and Indiana.
My prediction is 364 electoral vote win with 52% of the popular vote.
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