Today, former Sen. Phil Gramm, a top economic adviser to presumptive GOP nominee John McCain, referred to the economic slowdown as "a mental recession" and called the United States “a nation of whiners.” McCain is backpedaling furiously. But what can he really do? That's what the Republicans really think. They're doing fine. They don't worry much about $5 gasoline (I saw premium at $5.09 last week). They're not facing foreclosure. They're not being laid off.
It doesn't get much better than this.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
A Nation of Whiners
Posted by The Law Talking Guy at 1:22 PM
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According to Washington Post, McCain had an event scheduled yesterday at an auto parts supplier in Michigan. The workers, "sat in stony silence," as McCain spoke, apparently. Wash Post describes McCain's campaign as now, "hitting a wall," in Michigan, a state they had hoped to put into play before Gramm's comment.
With McCain having stumble upon stumble lately (this post, dr. strangelove's comment, his insistence that Iraq's leadership doesn't really want a timetable for withdrawal even after such a request was issued, etc, etc.) it is curious to me that current polls ( http://tinyurl.com/5wzqmb ) show him only a few percentage points behind Obama.
I realize that this poll comes on the heels of the backlash against his support for the FISA bill but I'm still surprised it is THAT close (of course, I was surprised that Bush was reelected in 2004 so perhaps it is my judgement that is at issue).
Oops, I thought links would be automatically rendered in Blogger. That link I posted above is available here.
Well, McCain looks close in the nation wide polls which the media love to report. But that poll number doesn't matter at all.
What matters is the state by state situation. There, McCain is so far behind he looks doomed - thus the campaign staff shake ups and the talk about "hitting the wall."
According to Real Clear Politics.org, Obama has a significant lead (this website seems to define this as 6% lead or better) in states with 238 electoral votes. He needs 270 to win. McCain has a significant lead in states with 163 electoral votes. States with 137 electoral votes have polls that are within the roughly 6% margin and are treated as "toss ups."
If you ignore the narrow leads and just assume that even a tiny lead today will lead to victory in November, Obama would win 304 to 234 - including a win in infamously "Red" Indiana and Colorado.
McCain is not currently ahead in any state that voted for Kerry in 2004. Obama is way ahead in one state (Iowa) and marginally ahead in three states (Colorado, Indiana and Ohio) that voted for Bush in 2004. Among the 11 toss ups, only one, Michigan, voted for Kerry in 2004 and Obama has a narrow lead there too. This means that the fight for the toss up states is all on Republican turf. They are backed into the corner. That Virignia and North Carolina are even in play should make Republicans shit bricks.
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