How to Defeat John McCain

If the election were held today, Barack Obama would win, but the election will not be held for four more months. So the problem for the Obama campaign is to avoid defeat in the next four months. This election is largely about Obama. As Mark Shields said well on the Newshour last week, the public basically knows who John McCain is and knows that they don't like Bush or his Republicans in power. What they don't know yet is whether Obama is an acceptable alternative. Obama remains definable. So what does Obama have to do?

1. Define himself as a regular politician. Return to Center (address unknown...). Obama is doing a good job of this right now. Obama needs to assure people that he is normal, even at the expense of being a Phenomenon, as he has been to date. To some extent, the view that he is an "ordinary politician" is not so awful. Sure, that dampens enthusiasm for him on the left, but the left is still voting for him, and so are the African-Americans. Assuring Middle America that he is not a revolutionary is important. Hence the Iraq business of late. He is saying that he won't be pigeonholed by McCain as someone who is "too rigid" in his views with a plan to end the war that bears no relation to facts on the ground. He is trying to show that he's realistic. This is a good thing.

2. Refine McCain. McCain is already defined in the public's mind, so much so that attempts to redefine his character are dismissed by pundits offhand. Calling him a right wing nut isn't going to work (even though it's true). But you can refine the public's views.
a) The public views him as angry and too quick to anger, even reckless. Go with that. Exaggerate that and accentuate that.
b) The public views him as being a man who sticks with his convictions, even a big stubborn: go with that, make him seem more stubborn, even obsessive over things like Iraq.
c) Conservatives view him as a bit of a turncoat. Go with that... talk about his changing positions. Point out that he undercut Bush, then embraced some of his views on the way out. The word "betray" can be used to great effect with McCain to dampen enthusiasm by conservatives.
d) McCain says he's better at foreign policy. Go with that. Show that he's too interested in foreign policy to be good at fixing the economy, which is our real problem.
e) McCain is old. He talks about the past all the time, about Vietnam, about his father and grandfather. Go with that. Wonder aloud about a Cold War mentality.

3. Undercut McCain's pedestal. Wes Clark took a great shot at McCain, making it possible to begin discussing in public whether McCain really can't be questioned as to his ability to be C-in-C. Obama can't do that, but he can profit from it. Emphasize McCain's flip-flops. This undercuts the view that he is a man of convictions. As you emphasize that he's more stubborn than principled, point out that he's also not that principled. See the comments above about betrayal.

4. Challenge McCain for specific proposals to improve economic conditions. McCain is a conservative - he doesn't really believe in specific proposals to help the economy. So he can't do a good job. The more he proposes, the less conservative he seems.

5. Make sure everyone in America knows that McCain opposed Bush's tax cuts too in the beginning. Say that he also opposes Bush's tax cuts without adding that he has a different view now. Make him explain that, if he dares.

So yes, it's a very negative campaign.

But that's okay. It's got to be that way, because McCain's only hope for winning is super-negative, to convince the public that Obama is Too Much of a Risk for them. Fight fire with fire. Make people realize that McCain is the risk; Obama is safe. That is the way to victory in four months' time.