Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Thursday, June 12, 2008

The new EV-Com Maps

I am feeling pretty vindicated right now as the maps are starting to look as I predicted they would once Obama got his "being a winner" boost. States like Kentucky, and WV where Clinton had been the only campaigner are, now that the GOP has returned to the airwaives, pretty solidly red. Michigan has come back to the blue column, where it and PA will remain. Ohio is moving there for good. The tossups are, as previously expected, Nevada, Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico. All of these are "gravy" states for Democrats if they win Ohio.


Raised By Republicans said...

Real Clear Politics' electoral map ( has Obama with 238 EV's safely in his column, one of which, Iowa, voted for Bush in 2004. McCain has 190, none of which voted for Kerry in 2004. There are 110 EV's from 10 states are in the toss up column. Of those 10 states only two voted for Kerry in 2004 (Michigan and New Hampshire). In otherwords, the battle for this election is going to be fought on Republican turf.

Most alarmingly for the GOP, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia are all toss ups.

More tidbits. Wisconsin was a tossup for both Gore and Kerry but is looking fairly safe for Obama. A similar story applies in Oregon, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

Dr. Strangelove said...

I am told these maps are poor predictors for the November elections :-)

The Law Talking Guy said...

I have been very clear that data show that the earliest date on which poll data begins to matter is in June. So these maps are starting to matter as they begin to include summer polls.