Check out the www.electoral-vote.com map today. It has Obama at 344, McCain at 194. I believe the November election results will look exactly like that map. I am not saying this map is *evidence* of what will happen - just that it happens to look exactly like what I'm expecting given historical trends, etc. 
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Electoral Predictions
Posted by The Law Talking Guy at 9:28 AM
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5 comments:
I am not as optimistic about Florida and Missouri. That would be a great map, though.
I share bell curve's concerns about Florida. But I also like the map, and I think it represents the conventional wisdom pretty well about what a good election for Obama could look like.
I did hear today that Florida really doesn't want new drilling off it's shores--it's been a bipartisan initiative in the past. I guess we'll see how unhappy they are about this idea.
I have an Uncle in Santa Barbara, CA. He's normally a libertarian/conservative (he is a former "comadore" of his yacht club - but WAY cooler than the Ted Knight character from Caddy Shack) and he was really upset when they started setting up oil rigs off the Santa Barbara coast. He's ticked off that the oil industry could risk the desctruction of all the other things of value in his town and get a fat tax subsidy to do it.
I just heard on MSNBC that Obama is running "biography ads" in 18 states including Virginia, North Carolina, Alaska, North Dakota, Ohio and others. This is what the 50 state strategy is all about. He's not going to concede states to McCain just because Republicans usually win them or have won them lately.
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