Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

The Nevada Race or What Happens in New Hampshire Stays in New Hampshire?

Five minutes ago, the influential Culinary Workers Union endorsed Barack Obama for president, following the SEIU's earlier announcment of support for Obama. This is a major boost for Obama in Nevada, where the 60,000 members of the CWU are expected to be the majority voting bloc in the Nevada caucuses on 1/19.

The Michigan primary is a mess because Obama is not even on the ballot there. HRC's victory there on 1/15 will not mean much. According to the Michigan Democratic party, supporters of Richardson or Obama (neither on the ballot) should vote for "uncommitted."

This means that the Nevada contest in 10 days is the next Big Thing for Dems.

The Republicans are all on the Michigan ballot, so that matters. They also have an SC primary on the same day as Nevada (1/19), while Dems don't get an SC primary until 1/26, one week later.
Florida votes on 1/29 for both parties. All candidates are on the FL ballot.
Then of course, Super Tuesday on 2/5 should decide the election.

We hope.

It would be an unimitigated disaster for the Dems if the nomination process were to be so divided that the unelected superdelegates or the unseated Michigan/Florida delegates would be outcome-determinative.

328 comments:

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Anonymous said...

Thanks for the summary, LTG. Can you clarify something for me: I thought the whole point of declaring the Michigan and Florida representatives unseated was so they didn't get votes. Are you suggesting there would be an issue if the vote was close enough that those lost votes would have made the difference, or am I missing something?

I take also that the Democratic nomination is now effectively a two horse race...

Spotted Handfish

Raised By Republicans said...

Spotted Handfish,

I think you're right that the Demcoratic nomination contest is down to two people. Edwards finished a distant third in New Hampshire and is polling a similarly distant third in South Carolina despite having grown up in that state and being a former Senator from North Carolina. I've also heard that Edwards has raised far less money than either Obama or Clinton. Of course Edwards is personally quite wealthy but I doubt he's "buy yourself a presidential campaign for Christmas" wealthy.

Dr. Strangelove said...

Spotted Handfish: the elimination of MI and FL delegates has been controversial. Many have suspected all along that the delegates would eventually be seated for (what else?) political reasons. Of course, the punishment would only really sting if the delegate count ended up being so close that the MI and FL votes mattered... But in that case, the cry to seat their delegates might be too loud to deny. (Which, of course, is why many suspect they will be seated in any event.)

USWest said...

Richardson just dropped out. So that takes care of one issue on the MI ballot. But not having Obama on that ballot is a big problem.

USWest said...

Another thank you to LTG. I am goad you posted on Nevada. It is being forgotten with the rush to South Carolina and it matters because it is the first Western state to vote. And the West is new frontier in terms of voting. It is the fastest growing part of the country, and quite diverse (I started to type the most diverse this side of the Mississippi, but stopped because I can't say that with certainty. Chicago is pretty diverse, as are the twin cities, right?)

Raised By Republicans said...

Yes, Nevada will be interesting as a bell weather for electoral appeal among all those newly converted Democrats in the Rocky Mountains.

The Law Talking Guy said...

There's no good polling in Nevada, btw. First, nobody has operations there to do it. Second, nobody knows who in heck will show up at the caucuses.

I am eager, as is USWest, to see how we Westerners vote in our first race. The union endorsements of Obama are interesting. The scuttlebutt seems to be that they wanted Edwards, but are backing Obama instead. It's ABH time, I think. Why are these unions not keen on HRC, when many other unions esp. in the Midwest are okay with her? That's an interesting question. I suspect it has something to do with midwestern unions being part of the establishment, while western unions are newer and only loosely affiliated with the Dems.

FYI, Nevada has a very large Mormon population all GOPers of course, which should help Romney.

Raised By Republicans said...

Is California really "Western?" I'd think LA or SF have more in common with New York than Carson City.

USWest said...

RBR raises a good point about CA. I think SF has more in common with New York or even Seattle. LA has more in common with . . . . Miami? But those two cities do not the whole state make. And each has a very distinct culture and attitude of its own.

California is an odd mix. It has the very mountainous region to the north of Sacramento, great desert to the south and then the agricultural region down the center. The big shift is in the state is that CA is now solidly BLUE following the very red Regan revolution. Hell, we sent Reagan to DC.

The Central Valley is changing because of Bay Area refugees. As more farmland is sold off for development (if indeed that continues now), and as the new UC Merced expands to enrich the CSU and JC schools in the Valley, you will see a more urban, educated, liberal Central Valley. The state's population is changing and moving rapidly. So in this sense, it is Western and rather anti-Washington. We don't like DC telling us what to do 'cause we don't get no respect there. So in some sense, we have a libertarian streak. This makes us more like Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico than one would think. Even those states have their liberal cities.

By my calculation, if the trend continues, CA will be blue for many years to come- but then we might fall into the ocean by then.

Raised By Republicans said...

LA and SF may not make up the whole state but they make up more than half of it and dominate its politics.

The Law Talking Guy said...

Western states are surprisingly urban, and becoming more so. The reason why elections in NV, NM, CO, and AZ are becoming competitive is because they are all places with soaring urbanization. In this respect, these states resemble California much more than you might otherwise think. I also think the western shortage of water and vast national parks are also crucial commonalities. In the mountain west you are seeing a new kind of politics layered on top of the traditional libertarian ethos of these self-reliant states: a sense of the need for a community to make decisions and take responsibility for collective decisionmaking such as control of water resources, the environment, and the problems of urbanization.

What's happening, IMHO, is that mountain west is becoming more like California every day in this respect. It doesn't hurt that Californians are fleeing to these more affordable states all the time.

Where CA differs is in its larger diversity and the fact that its new western urbanism, to coin a phrase, is layered over social progressivism and a different history. That's how I see it.

Raised By Republicans said...

LTG makes excellent points about urbanization. The same can be said about Georgia and Virginia and Florida too. Not that they look more and more like California but that they look more and more like Ohio.

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