The polls are predicting that both the Democratic and Republican caucuses are too close to call. Assuming they are right, that could mean the big story coming out of Iowa on Friday won't be "who won" but rather how the two parties turned out.
In 2004, 125,000 or so Democrats participated in the Caucus. If the Democrats can top that already high number, it could be an early indication of turnout in 2008. If the Republicans turn out in significantly lower numbers, that could be a bad sign for them. Keep in mind that the proportion of Republican and Democratic voters in Iowa is roughly the same.
I've been hearing a lot lately that Obama's support is coming from independents and even some former Republicans. Indeed, I've heard that in New Hampshire, the McCain campaign thinks they are competing for votes not just with other Republicans but with Obama. It seems that many independent minded Republicans genuinely like Obama as well as McCain but let's be frank. Obama has a better position on the war (he's against it) and he's a hell of a lot more charismatic than McCain. He's also younger and in obviously better health.
The problem for Obama is that independents and young voters (his strength) are about the least likely to turn out for the Caucus. So a big turnout for the Democratic Caucus would not only be a bad sign for the Republicans but it could a good sign for Obama.
More after the Caucus.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Posted by Raised By Republicans at 4:18 PM