Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Final Pre Caucus Update

Hi Everyone,

The polls are predicting that both the Democratic and Republican caucuses are too close to call. Assuming they are right, that could mean the big story coming out of Iowa on Friday won't be "who won" but rather how the two parties turned out.

In 2004, 125,000 or so Democrats participated in the Caucus. If the Democrats can top that already high number, it could be an early indication of turnout in 2008. If the Republicans turn out in significantly lower numbers, that could be a bad sign for them. Keep in mind that the proportion of Republican and Democratic voters in Iowa is roughly the same.

I've been hearing a lot lately that Obama's support is coming from independents and even some former Republicans. Indeed, I've heard that in New Hampshire, the McCain campaign thinks they are competing for votes not just with other Republicans but with Obama. It seems that many independent minded Republicans genuinely like Obama as well as McCain but let's be frank. Obama has a better position on the war (he's against it) and he's a hell of a lot more charismatic than McCain. He's also younger and in obviously better health.

The problem for Obama is that independents and young voters (his strength) are about the least likely to turn out for the Caucus. So a big turnout for the Democratic Caucus would not only be a bad sign for the Republicans but it could a good sign for Obama.

More after the Caucus.


Dr. Strangelove said...

If the delegate tally is a virtual tie, let's say 32% Hillary and 31% Obama, will the press say (as they usually do) "Hillary Won!" and ignore the fact it was a virtual tie? I hope voters can see past that, or that the news media will allow themselves to report a slightly more complex story than a single name.

I have also heard firsthand from some independents and independent-minded Republicans that they find themselves quite interested in Obama, in part because they are very disappointed in the Republican field, but they also hate Hillary, so Obama floats up as the compromise choice. It is, at any rate, a fascinating race. And while I personally support Hillary, I would be very happy with Obama as well.

Perhaps our Roving Citizen will make an appearance in 2008 to describe the Iowa caucuses?

The Law Talking Guy said... is saying that in Des Moines it will be crisp, cool, and clear tonight, with current windy conditions abating by nightfall. Excellent caucus weather for a good turnout.

Raised By Republicans said...

The temps are supposed to be in the 20s tonight. That might sound frigid to you Californians out there but for the last few days the temps have been in the single digits with solidly subzero windchills. After that 20 degrees feels down right warm.