Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, April 21, 2004

Coincidence vs. Causality

The other good point that The Law Talking Guy makes is that coincidence does not imply causality. RbR's argument, if I may summarize, says "one-dimensional economies are not democracies, therefore one-dimensional economies cause a country to not be a democracy." What if I told you that more people die of tuberculosis in Arizona than any other state? (which, last I checked, was true) The quick and easy conclusion to draw is that the climate in Arizona is somehow bad for tuberculosis, when in fact the very opposite is true.
I think we need to take in to account the other possible factors here, such as geography, religion, history, economic sanctions, etc. before we can come to a conclusion on this one.

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