Can Kerry Win Ohio?

Many pundits are saying that the 2004 election could turn on the so called swing states. One of the most important swing states is Ohio. No Republican has ever won without winning Ohio. Bush won Ohio in 2000 by a narrow margin despite the fact that Gore abandoned the state in the final weeks of the campaign. If Kerry wins all the states that voted for Gore plus Ohio...he wins.

I took a look at the March Ohio Poll and here is what I think I saw in it....

First a little background. Ohio politics is driven by its cross roads nature. The Cleveland area is very much a North Eastern city like Buffalo or Pittsburgh. The Columbus area is very much a Midwestern city like a cross between Minneapolis and Indianapolis - not as "nice" as Minneapolis but not as "NASCAR" as Indy. Cincinnati is more like a Southern city complete with olde tyme paddle wheel river boats (on the Ohio River). This translates into Ohio being something of a miniature model of the rest of the country. Cleveland nearly always turns out big for Democrats. Cincinnati (and nearby Dayton) tend to turn out big for Republicans. Columbus could go either way but the recent trend is that Columbus is moving in a Democratic direction as it undergoes a prolonged period of rapid growth. FYI: Columbus, not Cleveland, is now the largest city in Ohio.

OK, so what about the Ohio Poll? The key findings I think are what the Columbus TV market, self-identified moderates, and self-identified independents think of the major candidates.
If the election were held today, Kerry would beat Bush in the Columbus TV market 50% to 45% with Nader getting 2%.
If the election were held today Kerry would beat Bush among self-identified moderates (statewide) 54% to 38% with Nader getting 4%.
If the election were held today Kerry would beat Bush among registered independents 37% to 24% with Nader getting 19% and 20% for Mr. Other/Undecided (warning less than 75 independents statewide this could lead to funky results).

If the election were held today Kerry would beat Bush among voters between 18 and 29 years old 56% to 22% with Nader getting 20% and 3% undecided. Of course young voters are the least likely to vote.
Bush has a clear advantage among voters between 46 and 64 years old (Bush beats Kerry 51% to 44%). This is the only age group with Bush getting a clear advantage BUT voters in this group are far more likely to actually vote than other age groups.

So, if MTV's efforts to boost the youth vote produces a higher than expected turnout for the under 30 set, Kerry could win big in Ohio. If young people turn out in their usual apathetic numbers, Kerry could still win Ohio with critical support from moderate voters from Central Ohio (Columbus area).

For other more detailed results I suggest you look at the poll (see link above). Its got a lot of detail.

Florida is another state that Bush won that could go for Kerry this time. Anyone know a good source for state level poll numbers in Florida? Both Ohio and Florida are in the Eastern Time Zone so we may know how this election turns out pretty early.