Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Friday, September 22, 2006

Reading the Polls in Connecticut

9/19/06Likely VotersRepublicans(26%)Democrats(39%)Independents(35%)
Lamont45%15%62% 47%
Lieberman47%66%36%45%
Others3%8%0%3%
Undecided5% 11%2%11%

We learn some interesting things from this polls.
1. Independent voters are split with a large amount undecided.
2. Democrats now favor Lamont by almost 2 to 1. This shows a shift to Lamont from the primary last month where it was nearly 50/50.
3. Republicans are only giving 2/3 support to Lieberman. The other 1/3 is scattered. Some are willing to vote for Lamont. The Republican candidate is getting some fringe Republican support (some of that 8%) but little. I think it is all very soft. I also expect low Republican turnout if the choice is between two democrats. In other words, I think the"likely voter" category is very overstated for Republcians. The 15% voting for Lamont probably realize that the best chance Republicans ultimately have of taking the state in the future is to get a left-leaning Democrat in there over the centrist/rightist Lieberman.

Therefore, I predict Lamont will win this race, as the Democratic vote continues to shift towards him, while the Republican Lieberman "base" fails to materialize at the polls.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

We also see that Lamont is beating Lieberman among indepdents. That's bad news for Lieberman.

FYI: Here is a great site  for tracking state elections. They are predicting the Senate will be 50-50 if the election were held today. 

// posted by RBR

Anonymous said...

I will be very surprised if the Dems don't win New Jersey. The polling there is generally sketchy. 

// posted by Bell Curve

Anonymous said...

Another poll shows Lieberman leading 49-39, but no other breakdown info available.  

// posted by LTG