Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Friday, September 22, 2006

Reading the Polls in Connecticut

9/19/06Likely VotersRepublicans(26%)Democrats(39%)Independents(35%)
Lamont45%15%62% 47%
Undecided5% 11%2%11%

We learn some interesting things from this polls.
1. Independent voters are split with a large amount undecided.
2. Democrats now favor Lamont by almost 2 to 1. This shows a shift to Lamont from the primary last month where it was nearly 50/50.
3. Republicans are only giving 2/3 support to Lieberman. The other 1/3 is scattered. Some are willing to vote for Lamont. The Republican candidate is getting some fringe Republican support (some of that 8%) but little. I think it is all very soft. I also expect low Republican turnout if the choice is between two democrats. In other words, I think the"likely voter" category is very overstated for Republcians. The 15% voting for Lamont probably realize that the best chance Republicans ultimately have of taking the state in the future is to get a left-leaning Democrat in there over the centrist/rightist Lieberman.

Therefore, I predict Lamont will win this race, as the Democratic vote continues to shift towards him, while the Republican Lieberman "base" fails to materialize at the polls.


Anonymous said...

We also see that Lamont is beating Lieberman among indepdents. That's bad news for Lieberman.

FYI: Here is a great site  for tracking state elections. They are predicting the Senate will be 50-50 if the election were held today. 

// posted by RBR

Anonymous said...

I will be very surprised if the Dems don't win New Jersey. The polling there is generally sketchy. 

// posted by Bell Curve

Anonymous said...

Another poll shows Lieberman leading 49-39, but no other breakdown info available.  

// posted by LTG