Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

The Rust Belt and the Islands

Wikipedia has a nifty map of the Democratic nomination race at the county level that is well worth pondering. You have to fill in a few things by hand, and take all of Michigan with a huge grain of salt, but the finer resolution seems revealing. Here is how the map of remaining contests looks to me. (Pledged delegates only in parentheses.)

Obama Country:

North Carolina (115)
Oregon (52)
Mississippi (33)
Montana (16)
South Dakota (15)
Wyoming (12)
Vermont (15) -- (Consider counties and IL/MO border. I think this makes sense.)
TOTAL: 258

Clinton Country:
Texas (193)
Kentucky (51)
West Virginia (28)
TOTAL: 272

Rust Belt Battleground:

Pennsylvania (158)
Ohio (141)
Wisconsin (74)
Indiana (72)
TOTAL: 445

Island Warfare:
Hawaii (22)
Guam (4)
Puerto Rico (55)
Rhode Island (21) -- (Too cute to resist!)
TOTAL: 102

Anyhow, that's how I think it comes down. What I think of as their native territories are pretty much equal. But I think Obama will sweep the Islands--in fact, some would just lump them in Obama's column right now--so the big battle will be in the Rust Belt. Obama needs only a draw; Clinton needs a convincing victory. It is hard to conclude that Obama is not the front-runner at this point.


Dr. Strangelove said...

It probably won't make the national news much, but Former Senator John Glenn has just endorsed Hillary. This may make a difference with some wavering Ohioans. It will be interesting to see what other Ohio politicians do.

Raised By Republicans said...

Glenn's endorsement matters to the Blue Haired Brigade who would probably vote for Clinton anyway.

Clinton probably got a bigger boost from Governor Strickland.

The Law Talking Guy said...

Actually, Puerto Rico is expected to be Clinton territory, and a big one at that. Although no Dem contest is WTA, there is a history (according to some websites) of the PR democratic party voting in lockstep for its candidate. So Puerto Rico is not a place Obama expects to win.

The Law Talking Guy said...

What does this mean for Vermont?
"(Consider counties and IL/MO border. I think this makes sense.)"

The Law Talking Guy said...

I think you're being generous putting Texas and Kentucky in Clinton Country. Texas Dems are largely unknown. Basing that on the Latino vote is perilous. Kentucky also is a grab bag. Sure, Appalachia will vote for Clinton (oh do be proud) but it is 92% white, which actually (oddly) seems to favor Obama in this race. I know there's a tendency to think KY will vote like Tennesee, but Tennesseee is 17% black AND its Dems are leery of a black candidate after getting burned with Harold Ford. I think KY belongs in a tossup category.

The Law Talking Guy said...

Here's why Obama may be the frontrunner. If he gets exactly 1/2 the remaining pledged delegates listed by Dr.S, (538) and adds that to the 1114 pledged delegates counted by (RCP), that's 1652 - a majority of pledged delegates. Even if Michigan and Florida are seated, the 538 delegates give him likely 1789 - just three shy of an absolute majority of pledged delegates. So Obama needs to do well, but doesn't need to run the table.

Dr. Strangelove said...

LTG and I agree on what Clinton and Obama must do if each is to win. We both agree Obama is the frontrunner. LTG's numbers back up what I said: Obama needs only to draw in the remaining contests, while Clinton must have many wins.

I put TX in Clinton's column because of the Latino vote--and I do not believe that is perilous. She won 67% of the Latino vote in California, 62% in New Mexico, and 55% in Arizona. I also think the results in Oklahoma and Missouri show Clinton is popular with rural white voters in that region. We can at least agree it is a must-win state for Hillary.

For KY, I look to Tenn. and the neighboring rural counties of western Virginia and Missouri. White voters in Appalachia will bring the bacon home for Clinton. The rural, small-town nature of much of KY goes for Clinton.

For Vermont, except for its border with NY, it is surrounded by Obama counties. If we look to the IL/MO border, we see that Obama's home-state advantage did not spill across the river in rural areas. So I discount the significance of the NY counties along VT's border also. The recent results from Maine also suggest VT will go for Obama.

Dr. Strangelove said...

Of course, i could be wrong on all of it. All I really know is that Obama has several states lined up for him and Clinton needs to do well in pretty much every other state.

The Law Talking Guy said...

Today, state rep. Peter Gallegos, chairman of the Texas Mexican-American Legislative Caucus, endorsed Obama.

Dr. Strangelove said...

I'm surprised by Puerto Rico. Has the establishment there endorsed Hillary or Obama, or no one?

The Law Talking Guy said...

There are connections with Clinton going back to Vieques issues, I think.

Dr. Strangelove said...

Obama has +120 in pledged delegates at the moment. It will be very difficult for Clinton to overcome that gap with the 1077 pledged delegates yet to be selected.

If Obama wins all the states I put in his column 65/35, which is not unreasonable, then Clinton needs to win all the other remaining states 62/38 in her favor to pick up 120 delegates.

If she gets +50 from Florida, or +25 from Michigan, her chances are much better... But still not great.