Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

The Fat Lady has Not Sung for McCain

McCain is claiming front runner status. Perhaps, but it's far from over. It was really Huckabee's night! McCain didn't get more than 50% of the vote anywhere except NYC, NJ, and CT: Giuliani country (on the Democratic side, the fact that HRC did not win all three is the biggest surprise of the night, and I don't think RBR is right that it's all about Lieberman - Obama has been nice to him too). Shockingly, even in his home state of AZ, McCain only got 47% of the vote. By contrast, Clinton, Romney, Huckster, and Obama each won their home states by mor ethan 50%.

The map tells a different story. Huckabee won every state in the South except Missouri, which he lost by 1 point, and OK, which he lost by 2. Romney won the caucus states in the plains and west. What does this mean? It means that outside of the coasts, McCain is really struggling, and there only with Giuliani's support.

The Republican race from here on out looks different than the Democratic race - different dates, different states, different issues, different rules:

Feb 9: Kansas and Louisiana (creationism-land: All Huckabee), Washington caucuses (McCain or Romney) (in both KS and LA are proportional)
Feb 12: DC, Maryland (McCain), Virginia (old-line conservative - 3-way tie at best) (all 3 are winner-take all!)
Feb 19: Washington primary (non-binding: may favor McCain), Wisconsin primary (probably Huckabee - see Michigan results where Huckabee won UP). (WI-winner take all)
Feb 24: Puerto Rico primary (McCain?)
March 4: VT, RI (small votes- McCain); Ohio (?), and Texas (?). McCain hardly has a lock on Ohio with its many evangelicals (don't start, RBR, you know it's true), and Texas is not at all McCain friendly. (TX - winner take all if more than 50% in a district, otherwise proportional by district; Ohio-winner take all, VT-winner take all, RI - proportional)
March 11: Mississippi (Huckabee country) (MS - if more than 50% in state, winner take all, otherwise proportional)
then nothing until...
April 22: Pennsylvania (Rick Santorum endorsed Romney) ( a "loophole" primary: voters choose delegates, not a candidate, who are then un-pledged and free to do as they wish)
May 6: Indiana, N. Carolina (neither favors McCain - both are creationism places)
May 13: Nebraska primary (see Kansas)
May 18: Hawaii (lots of Mormons in Hawaii.... so who knows?) (caucus)
May 20: Kentucky (Huck), Oregon (McCain) (both proportional)
May 27: Idaho primary (Romney w/ Mormon vote huge) (proportional)
June 3: New Mexico (curious - see AZ and the immigration anti-McCain backlash) and South Dakota (what-ever). (both proportional)

So if I'm McCain, I'm not so sanguine about the path from here. The primaries McCain can win are largely proportional; those for other candidates largely WTA.


Dr. Strangelove said...

Well, she may not have sung yet but you can hear her practicing, "Me, Mi, Mo...!" backstage.

Raised By Republicans said...

LTG may be right that McCain isn't quite done. And he's absolutely right that McCain's problems in traditionally Republican states are a bad omen for his chances of getting his people out in November without the help of some outside motivation.

But I think he's oversimplifying Republican politics in couple of state at least. The GOP in Kansas was actually rather divided over that whole creationism thing and the Christian conservative wing has suffered something of a backlash within the party. So McCain could pull it off.

The Ohio GOP is similarly divided. While Christian conservatives are about a quarter of Ohio voters, they are closer to half of Republican voters. So far that would confirm a Huckabee prediction. Except that the Ohio GOP recently suffered its worst electoral defeat in decades (2006 saw them lose a senate seat, the governorship and a few house seats). All that defeat came under the leadership of the Christian wing of the party. The remaining Ohio Republicans are of the tough guy/testosterone fetishist/nationalist variety who would love McCain.

The Law Talking Guy said...

Well, Romney dropped out of the race today. That means it's Huckabee vs. McCain. So now we see if Huckster has any staying power.

Dr. Strangelove said...

The soprano takes to the stage for her aria. A hush falls over the crowd... She begins to sing...

The Law Talking Guy said...

It is, sadly for McCain, something of a dirge.