Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

On to Richmond!

Obama won Virginia in a landslide.
According to exit polls, Obama won both men and women (women by 58%, men by more).
He won 55% of the Latino vote and tied Clinton for the white vote (50% Clinton/49% Obama). So that's a great broadening of his coalition that bodes well. Maryland and DC polls close in minutes.

Virginia's Republicans, however, are in their own civil war. The exit polls show Huckabee should win a narrow victory, say 46-44. So far, votes are looking to come in like that too. If so, it's WTA, and a huge, huge blow to McCain going forward.


The Law Talking Guy said...

A Maryland circuit judge (a trial court judge)in Anne Arundel county has ordered the polls (and pollworkers, I guess) to stay open another 90 minutes, until 9:30pm EST. The ostensible reason is the traffic. I bet it has more to do with politics. Could it be that some pro-Clinton unions discovered that their members didn't vote, and they have to be dragged to the polls? I hope it's nothing so ugly, just ugly weather. Leaving polls open longer is a concern in any election.

The Law Talking Guy said...

I meant weather, not traffic. LA on the brain.

Dr. Strangelove said...

There were strong racial and gender divisions, however. Obama won because of the African-American vote--he got 90% of it, and it represented 30% of the electorate.

Clinton tied or won the white vote, depending on which survey you look at. But Clinton only won the white vote because of white women, who supported her and were the majority constituency. Obama won white men.

The Law Talking Guy said...

It's a much different picture than S. Carolina or Georgia where Clinton won clear majorities of the white voters. This represents a significant change in the white electorate. Put another way, if Ohio voters turn out similar to Virginia voters, with Obama getting 1/2 the white vote and most of the black vote, it's curtains for Clinton. According to the census bureau, Virginia is 20% black and Ohio is 12% black. Virginia's Democratic primary electorate was 30% black. If Ohio voters are similar, that means that 18% of their Democratic electorate will be black, giving Obama 10-15% head start on Clinton. In other words, unless she can win the white vote significantly, she won't win.

I also note that Latinos in Virginia pretty much voted like the white voters. That is interesting. I suspect that in CA in particular, the Latino community votes differently not because of a Latino pro-Clinton or anti-black sentiment. Rather, the Latino political machine in CA is tied in with unions, party officials, and exerts power through the constituency to support its chosen candidate: in this case, Clinton. But that is an effect of Latino political power within the Democratic party here. Note that in Texas, there's very little of that. If Texas Latino Democrats vote like White Democrats, Clinton cannot win that state either, unless a solid majority of white Democrats support her.

The Law Talking Guy said...

In Maryland, the exit polls show white voters for Clinton: 55-42 and Latino voters almost the same. This supports my thesis about Latino voters voting like white voters. It also shows something else interesting. Obama's share of the white vote goes up (WA, ME, VA) or down (MD, LA, SC) where blacks are a larger or smaller percentage of the electorate. The Democratic party is more racially polarized where black voters are a larger % of the electorate and, presumably, have political power within the party. These are things the Democratic party should deal with in the years to come.

Still, 42% of the white vote in Maryland is a big improvement from other Southern states, and shows a shift in voting patterns that favors Obama.

Raised By Republicans said...

OK, the ability of the Clinton camp to claim that Obama only has the "Black vote" is decreasing rapidly. They tied among White voters. And Obama won among White men.

What I take from this is that White voters care a lot more about gender than race. But Black voters care more about race than gender.

I think Hillary is in a bubble if she thinks Obama can only beat her where there are large numbers of Black voters.

Oh, and another campaign staffer "resigned" from the Clinton campaign. Hillary's looking more and more like she's in "What? Me worry?" mode.