Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Good News for Democrats and Bad News for GOP

Here's an interesting tidbit from the CNN exit poll in Wisconsin.

Among Democrats, only 17% would be somewhat or very dissatisfied if Obama was the nominee. 31% of Democrats would somewhat or very dissastified if Clinton was the nominee. Among Republicans, 23% would be somewhat or very dissatisfied if McCain was the nominee. What this says to me is two things. First, Clinton may have a bigger problem with Democrats than McCain has with Republicans. But Second, Obama is looking more and more like the nominee and he is better off among Democrats than McCain is among Republicans AND Obama is the possible Democratic nominee with the most appeal among Independents.

More bad news for the Republicans. Their race is supposed to be over and done. McCain won a long time ago, remember the announcement after Super Tuesday? But McCain only got 55% of the vote (Obama got 58%). In a supposedly hopeless effort, Huckabee and Ron Paul got more of the vote than Clinton did in a hotly contested race. This despite that one would expect a meaningless primary would exagerate rather than deminish the front runner's lead.

Even more bad news for Republicans. Wiscsonsin has been up for grabs in recent Presidential races. But Democratic turnout roughly trippled the Republican tournout. This pattern was seen even before Romney dropped out so we can't say it's entirely because of semi-official annointment of McCain. Besides, as noted above, why are so many of the people who are showing up to the Republican primary voting against the guy they KNOW will be their nominee?

The shakier things look for the GOP in the general election, the more important keeping control of the party will be for the Huckabee supporters. That is, as more Republicans give up on November, more of them will decide they'd rather make sure the party keeps its social conservative/Christian focus instead of "selling out" in a vain attempt to win. This could be the reason for Huckabee's continued candidacy.

1 comment:

Dr. Strangelove said...

It is worth noting that each major Democratic candidate separately received more votes than all the Republicans put together.