Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Vilsack Endorses Clinton but will it matter?

Hi Gang,

Former Iowa Governor endorsed Clinton the other day and CNN is falling over themselves to make this a big victory for Clinton. But will it really matter?

In 2004, Howard Dean was endorsed by Senator Tom Harkin. Harkin is one of the most popular politicians in Iowa. Dean came in 3rd or 4th as I remember.

Vilsack is no where near as popular as Harkin. My friends in the state tell me that Vilsack is actually quite unpopular among liberal activists. And he's positively despised by the influential faculty members at the University of Iowa. In a state as lightly populated as Iowa, alienating a couple of key constituency groups within the Iowa Democratic base is not a good idea. If Clinton makes too be a show of being close to Vilsack she could see this backfire.

1 comment:

The Law Talking Guy said...

It will matter, I imagine, but not necessarily in the way intended. Conventional wisdom is that Edwards will do better in Iowa than he is polling nationally. Similarly, conventional wisdom (the expectations game) will make it harder for Hillary to claim she did well in Iowa without a first-place showing.

My read is that it helps Obama in the sense that it lowers expectations for him by comparison, so a strong second or even third place finish for him will be viewed more favorably than it otherwise would.