Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Friday, July 30, 2004

The Bounce Begins

Zogby America's poll of voters from July 26-29 is already out (During the convention but before Kerry's speech, reflecting mostly the news coverage of speeches by Clinton, Teresa H. Kerry, and Edwards).   It shows the race breaking open for the first time in several months:  Kerry 48, Bush 43.  With Nader, the libertarians, and other third party candidates, figured in the breakdown is 46-41 -- looking more like the vote in '96 and '92.  The more significant number, perhaps, is the "job approval" rating of Pres. Bush - 54 disapprove, 44 approve.  This is the first poll showing a "convention bounce."    We should expect a spate of such poll results to be released in the next week.

Historically, such a "bounce" has occurred after national nominating conventions.  Dukakis actually led Bush Sr. with the bounce in 1988 (coming from behind, not a tie).  The Republican convention bounce of August 1988 reversed the situation stuck through November.   In 1992, the Clinton bounce was so huge that it was never overcome by the later Republican bounce.  The main exception to the "bounce" rule has been Al Gore in 2000 - it took him from a slight 5 point deficit to a dead heat, where it stayed through election day, as we know.

1 comment:

Raised By Republicans said...

The big question will be the persistence of the bounce rather than its size. So far the electorate has been amazingly stable. There is almost no change in the polls for months on end. If this provokes a change I can't imagine anything the Bush campaign could SAY that would chang it back. That said, if some miracle happens in Iraq (unlikely) or a terrorist attack in the US (reaction less predictable), I think Bush MIGHT regain the lead.