Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Senate Polls

Senatorial polls are interesting this time of year because, unlike presidential races that get so much more attention, Senate polls can be revealing. Incumbents should have a big advantage right now. If they don't, it's a sign of trouble.

Interesting notes: Incumbent Coleman (R) is leading (slightly) over Franken in Minnesota (why they would nominate a comedian, I don't know, even if he is bright).

Kentucky: Rasmussen has Democrat Lunsford beating Senate Maj. Leader McConnell by 49-44. Terrible for McConnell.

Mississippi: Musgrove (D) is leading incumbent Wicker (R)(semi-incumbent, really, as he was appointed in Jan) by 48-40. Tells you about the problem with the R label even in Mississippi!

Colorado: Udall (D) by 6 over Schaffer (R) (open seat)

NH: Shaheen (D) up by 10 over Sununu (R)-Incumbent.

New Mexico: Udall (another Udall)(D) beats either Republican by 20 points

Virginia: Warner (D) up by 18 points.

North Carolina: Most polls show Dole (R-inc.) with slight leads, although two polls shows Hagan ahead.

Texas: Cornyn (R-inc.) beating Noriega by 5 points or fewer. Very rough for him.

Oregon: Polls show antiwar Republican incumbent Smith tied or slightly ahead of likely Democratic opponent.

These all show lots of work for Republicans to do, without much money.

9 comments:

History Buff said...

In Texas, Noriega is virtually unknown and way under funded. Interesting how close he is.

Raised By Republicans said...

LTG, to answer your question about Al Franken, I refer you to this posting on Daily Kos from one of his activists justifying their decision in the primary.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/27/224039/249/843/504616

The Law Talking Guy said...

So Franken is more than just a comedian, but he is a comedian by trade, at most some kind of journalist. That's just not what most people are looking for in a senator. Maybe he can win them over, but I'll bet the typical uninformed Minnesotan is inclined to vote for the more "serious" candidate at this point in time.

The Law Talking Guy said...

Well, History Buff, Noriega doesn't have an "R" next to his name right now. That's a big plus today. Cornyn is also a Loyal Bushie, which can't help him. Of course, Cornyn will win in the end. I just want it to be expensive.

Raised By Republicans said...

LTG, Minnesota elected Jesse "The Body" Ventura governor. And my relatives up there were pleasantly surprised with what they got - kind of like you guys out in California Schwarzenegger.

They've had a clown for Governor, why not a comedian for Senator?

Dr. Strangelove said...

I was just about to write in the same examples, RbR! Exactly right. I still smile about Jesse "The Body" Ventura. And Arnold is also amusing. And let's not forget about the actor who was President. In that context, a former comedian fits right in. Unfortunately, Franken's only political claim to fame is the failed "Air America" radio project, so I hope his campaign does better.

Raised By Republicans said...

That's why I posted that link to that explanation from Minnesota.

Out in California people don't get local news from the Twin Cities. Apparantly, Franken has spent the last several years travelling around the state building contacts with local democrats and constituents.

From the outside, it looks like some bozo comedian/radio talk show guy is dropping in from the sky to claim a senatorial seat. But from Minnesota, it looks much different.

Dr. Strangelove said...

Sorry, RbR--I should have followed the link. Franken's candidacy makes a lot more sense now. I can't wait to see his commercials on YouTube though!

Raised By Republicans said...

No problem, Dr. S. I was just adding information.

It's also worth noting that Franken faced a primary challenge from an academic from a minor local college. From what I've heard the Minnesota Democratic party (which is known locally as the Democratic Farm and Labor Party) is in serious disaray. They've run a series of failed campaigns led by the children of party leaders from 70s and 80s on the theory that political leadership is a family trait (names like Humphrey and Dayton are prominent in the party). So Franken's candidacy should be seen in that context.

The Minnesota Republicans have also been rather ossified and captured by a few prominent families. That's why Ventura was able to get into office in the first place. In fact, Ventura beat the current Republican Senator, Norm Coleman for the Governorship. Ventura beat Coleman and Hubert "Skip" Humphrey (the son of the famous Hubert Humphrey).

Coleman won his Senate seat only after incumbent Senator Paul Wellstone died suddenly in a plane crash in the middle of the campaign. Walter Mondale lost to Coleman officially but Mondale only ran to fill the slot in the wake of Wellstone's death. So Coleman hardly has a solid base of legitimacy for this seat.

Look up Coleman on wikipedia. This guy is a real sleaze. He started out as a 70s student radical, was mayor of St. Paul for years as a liberal Democrat, was chair of Wellstone's reelection committee in 1996 and then switched to being a Republican and ran against Wellstone in 2002. He pushed the limits of ethical campaigning after Wellstone's death. This guy is vulnerable.

According to wikipedia, Jesse Ventura is also considering running for the seat.