Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Holy Special Elections, Batman!

By a lopsided 54-46 margin, Democrat Travis Childers won election to the US House of Representatives, replacing longtime Republican Roger Wicker who vacated the seat when he was appointed to take Republican Trent Lott's Senate Seat. Nobody thought the Republicans had a chance of losing this seat. They brought Dick Cheney down to campaign there and spent their time linking Childers to Obama (a black man - oooooh, scary). This district voted 2/3 for George Bush in 2004. This is the third special election the Dems have won that they were not supposed to this year - one in Illinois (Speaker Dennis Hastert's old seat), one in Louisiana (Cazayoux) last weekend, now this. This now gives the Democrats a 236-199 majority in the House, the largest majority for either party since 1992. It also adds another superdelegate, for better or worse.

This bodes very, very well for November. If Republicans are so dispirited as not to be able to win a special election (note: special elections are usually low turnout affairs that naturally favor the GOP) in Mississippi, it's going to be a nightmare for them in November. Already, polls are showing that Dems are likely to pick up Senate seats in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. I expect the GOP will essentially concede those five in order to conserve their funds and prevent a filibuster-proof majority. That means they will conserve their money to defend the last two liberal Republicans in the Senate (whom they loathe), Smith from Oregon and Snowe from Maine, and the once-thought-safe seats in Alaska (embattled Ted Stevens), North Carolina (Liddy Dole), Nebraska (Hagel's old seat).

Ahh... I only hope the GOP doesn't get the gift of Hillary Clinton at the top of the Democratic ticket to scare them back to the polls.


Dr. Strangelove said...

This is great news. And the possibility of a five seat pickup for the Democrats in the Fall...! LTG is usually pretty conservative about that kind of estimate, so it makes me extra happy that he is the one making this prediction. (If RbR chimes in too, I will be positively gleeful.)

Raised By Republicans said...

This is a VERY good sign for the Demcorats.

I think the GOP is facing two serious problems. First, the country is horribly dissatisfied with the status quo and blames the GOP for it. Second, they are having real problems raising money.

This means that the Democrats can really put this thing away in November 2008 if they do things. Nominate a candidate who does not serve as a rallying cry for the conservative movement - i.e. DON'T put Hillary on the ticket! Second, they need to run a 50 state strategy. That means they have to go into these districts where these special elections have happened (and districts like them) and spend time and money courting the voters.

These two things would force the Republicans to play defense in the deep South instead of spending their scarce resources in swing states around the Great Lakes.

Obama's campaign has taken Dean's internet fund raising tacticts and perfected it. In April, they raised no less than 100,000+ on every day and raised a million on several days.

The Republicans simply cannot keep up with that. McCain certainly can't and the GOP Congressional campaigns are not much better off.