Part of the worry that Democrats have is that Hillary Clinton's version of events in the last few months is correct. That the party is hopelessly divided along class and racial lines and that only she can bring everyone together. In particular, Obama simply cannot win working class voters and cannot beat McCain in swing states where there are not large number of African American voters to boost his numbers.
However, with the world FINALLY acknowledging that Hillary will not be the nominee, polls are just now being put in the field that make no mention of Hillary Clinton. This is important because including questions about Hillary can prompt voters. Professional pollsters are well aware of this "Heisenberg Effect." Asking several questions about someone's preferences between Clinton and Obama then asking them whether they would vote for McCain or Obama is likely to effect the responses.
Recent polls in swing states that put Obama directly against McCain without including Hillary in the mix of questions have Obama beating McCain in several important swing states. You can see these polls at RealClearPolitics.Com.
Here are some highlights of the averages of the recent polls:
Obama beats McCain in Pennsylvania 46.3% to 40.5%
Obama beats McCain in Ohio 44% to 42.7%
Obama beats McCain in New Hampshire 45.7% to 45.3% (48% to 43% in the latest poll)
Obama beats McCain in Virgina (according to the latest poll): 49% to 42%
Obama beats McCain in Iowa 47.3% to 41.7%
Obama beats McCain in Colorado 48% to 42%.
Virginia, Ohio and Colorado all voted for Bush in 2004. If these poll results hold or improve as Obama gets into his campaign, it would mean 42 electoral votes switching from the Republicans to the Democrats. That's a huge swing!
Bush won the electoral vote in 2004 by a count of 286 to 251. If 42 of those votes switched, the Democrat would have won by a count of 293 to 244.
These observations are also interesting because Ohio and Pennsylvania are alledged by the Clinton Campaign to be unwinnable without her. These polls show that, thankfully, Hillary's analysis is incorrect. Obama has the edge in both states despite not having done any general election campaigning there. Just wait until Obama gets 20,000 or 30,000 people to show up to a rally in Columbus (75,000 showed up to his rally in Oregon).
Friday, May 23, 2008
Posted by Raised By Republicans at 1:20 PM