Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Obama Leading in Iowa?

Today's Washington post reports Obama is leading in Iowa among Democratic caucus-goers. Could be a wild night there. Particularly with Richardson pulling in 10%+ - not enough to meet the 15% threshold. Where will they go?

11 comments:

Raised By Republicans said...

The more detailed numbers that the Obama campaign press releases are spinning have Obama not only leading but also being the most popular second choice. That's critical in the Caucus because as supporters of the less successful candidates realize their cause is hopeless, they'll look for their second option.

The reason Clinton is not doing well in Iowa is not because Iowans are too dumb to realize all the good things that the Washington Post and CNN say about her. Clinton really comes off like an even slicker, more cynical, and less empathic version of her husband. Iowans just aren't responding to her even if the political reporters in the national media (who naively focus on national polls) have all but nominated her already.

USWest said...

RBR is right. Let us remember that the national media sold us GWB. And we shouldn't fail to notice it when they are doing it to one of our own. It is just as dangerous. And 8 years hasn't changed the national media one bit. That is a sad commentary.

Dr. Strangelove said...

Yes, I read the poll. It's still an exciting race in Iowa!

Anonymous said...

Dumb question: Iowa is on the 3rd of January. What is the chance that the dates will move?

Spotted Handfish

Dr. Strangelove said...

The Michigan primary is still in flux. We should know by Dec. 1st when it is. If they succeed in moving it to January 15th--but it's hard to tell how likely that is--then New Hampshire will set theirs to be no less than seven days earlier than that. Commonly this is expected to be January 8th. In that case, Iowa can still keep January 3rd as its date.

However, if the Michigan courts prevent the January 15th primary, then the political parties in Michigan might try a caucus instead, and they might set that to be earlier than Iowa's. And that could push everything into December. But likely not. I think odds are good that Iowa's date of January 3rd will stick. So about six more weeks until the first vote... probably.

Anonymous said...

Good luck with that then.

BTW -- I know it is off topic -- for Citizens who may be interested the Australian Federal Election is on this Saturday. I have to choose, in order of preference, between 5 for my House of Representatives seat, and between 68 for the 6 Senate seats in Victoria. As a large number of people in Australia probably can't count to 68 there is the option of selecting a party and letting them decide the preferences. Or voting for Fozzy Bear and making it invalid. Personally I like numbering the full ballot: there are too many people I want to put last.

Regardless it looks like W will be one more "close" friend down on the international stage. No-one expects him to win.

Spotted Handfish

Dr. Strangelove said...

If Howard and his party lose then we all have a little something extra to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. Enjoy your voting. How fun it must be to cast 68 partial votes for 6 seats instead of 1 vote for 1 seat...

Raised By Republicans said...

Here's to the Aussies showing us how to get rid of a bunch of nationalist, war mongering windbags! May we show similar wisdom and deliver a crushing defeat to the Republicans.

Anonymous said...

Well Howard lost convincingly, to the point that he may not even retain his own seat (his electorate has increased in immigrant population which seemed to dislike his redneck leaning agenda, and the boundaries of the district were modified in the last redistribution).

Kevin Rudd now takes over. Chances are there will be some action taken on Iraq (possible removal of troops) and you guys will be on your own on Kyoto.

Spotted Handfish

The Law Talking Guy said...

Another week now has 3 polls with Obama leading by 2-4 points (within MOE) and one with him and Clinton tied. And Huckabee is leading the Republican pack by the same tiny marigns. Iowa has become very, very interesting.

The Law Talking Guy said...

Another week now has 3 polls with Obama leading by 2-4 points (within MOE) and one with him and Clinton tied. And Huckabee is leading the Republican pack by the same tiny marigns. Iowa has become very, very interesting.