Hi Everyone,
In previous posts I have suggested that the Chinese Communists are essentially a nationalist/authoritarian party now instead of a communist party. They are trying to "ride the tiger" of Chinese (Han) nationalism. They have replaced the ideology of Marx and Mao with devotion to nationalism. I've suggested in the past that this could be a problem for the PRC government some day...what would they do if the nationalist feelings stopped being so easy to control?
Well, for the past several weeks large crowds of Chinese nationalists have been protesting against Japanese consulates and businesses. There is a lot for Chinese to be angry about. Japanese nationalism is alive and well and the Japanese equivalent of "Holocaust Denial" is accepted as the majority opinion and dominates the school books. For example, Japan and Japanese people routinely deny that Japan used biological weapons against Chinese civilians (weaponized strains of bubonic plague used by the Japanese during their occupation of China still kill Chinese people today) but Japanese history books deny this.
The current wave of protests is moving from anger of Japanese views of the 1930s and 1940s and is now being directed against Japanese (and Japanese looking) businesses. The protests are continuing despite seemingly sincere calls by the Chinese government for them to stop.
This brings me to two observations: First, the Chinese government seems to be on the verge of losing control of the nationalism they have been using a crutch to prop up their corrupt and inefficient regime. Second, China should take care to see that Japan does not start to pull its billions of dollars of investment out of China and redirect it to Mexico. The Mexicans would welcome the investment and the increased wealth in Mexico would be a great boon to the American economy.
What do you all think?
Saturday, April 16, 2005
Sino Japanese Relations
Posted by Raised By Republicans at 7:07 AM
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5 comments:
yes, i completely agree with you .. the chinese gov't is, indeed, on the verge of losing control as demonstrated by taiwan's disrespect in sending its leader to the pope's funeral.
i'm not a bush supporter, but he and condi have said it many times (paraphrasing here) that the U.S. will protect taiwan if china doesn't back off. seems like taiwan knows exactly what it's doing: playing the chinese against the american gov't. the thing is, taiwan is getting the short end of the stick when the bush administration change and new international relations policies are put in place. 'one china' is just a marketing slogan.
george w may not have a napoleon complex, but it's clear he has living-in-my-father's-shadow complex; what is the name for this complex, i can't find my intro to psych textbook to look it up.
I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a US policy change on Taiwan. The Clinton administration actually acted much more consistently to contain China and support Taiwan than G.W. has. Remember that South Asian/South East Asian tour Clinton took in his second term? He visited and improved relations with (among others) India and Taiwan. Clinton also was working to improve relations with Iran while working to stabilize the Korean peninsula. Clinton was quietly setting up a containment perimeter of China all while offering China MFN status and WTO membership. Genious!
Of course Bush undid most of that with the "Axis of Evil" crack and his malign neglect of the Korean peninsula situation. Bush also used up a lot of political capital Clinton had built up with India when it had to cozy up to Pakistan to get into Afghanistan (largely unavoidable there).
Anyway, the bottom line is one of the few things Democrats and Republicans seem to agree on is protecting the status quo in Taiwan.
And also, at the same time, not defining the status quo. This constructive ambiguity is far too intellectual for most conservatives, who prefer absolute truth and simple answers. I fear that Taiwan policy may ultimately be killed by neocons who, at heart, cannot understand pursuing a policy of mixed messages, ambiguity, confusion, and nuance.
Posted by LTG
RbR -- Why do you think that Japanese investment would go to Mexico instead of elsewhere? Just out of curiosity.
Posted by Bell Curve
Well, just hoping really. Actually there have been a lot of stories lately about Mexico losing investments to China. If I were a Japanese investor and just moved my money from Mexico to China, I'd be regretting it about now.
// posted by Raised By Republicans
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