So the latest economic news is encouraging - sort of. The unemployment rate announced today was 9.4%. The number of jobs lost in the previous month was the fewest jobs lost since August 2008. This is also good because a lot of pundits and economists were predicting that it would be over 10% by now. A friend of my family's is a labor economist at a major research university who told us at a Christmas party that she expected unemployment to hit 15% before all was said and done with this recession. That was before the stimulus bill though.
Friday, August 07, 2009
But don't celebrate the end of the recession just yet. There are still more jobs being lost than being created. But the unemployment rate is measured in the US in a way that doesn't count people who have been unemployed for a long time. So this is good news but the slight drop in unemployment rate is probably being driven by people dropping out of the denominator rather than better numbers in the numerator.
Here is a chart comparing the unemployment rates related to other post-WWII recessions. If we are in a 1973 pattern, then this could be the bottom. That would be good news. But you can see that there have been "double dip" patterns before and even recessions (like the 1969 recession) in which unemployment got bad and stayed bad for a long time.
Posted by Raised By Republicans at 2:36 PM