Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Predictions for Today

Vermont: Obama 60, Clinton 40 (Obama)
Rhode Island: Clinton 53, Obama 47 (Clinton)
Texas: Obama 51, Clinton 49 (barely Obama, but ahead in delegates for sure)
Ohio: Clinton 52, Obama 48 (Clinton)

End of night results: Obama gains net 10-20 delegates.


The Law Talking Guy said...

So far, it's looking like Clinton's night. My predictions are, sadly, coming true. Texas is close, but may break for Obama when Houston's votes come in.

So depressing. Clinton can only play for a draw at this point. A draw can only hurt the party. We'd be much better off having a nominee.

The Law Talking Guy said...

If Obama loses Texas, that's a huge problem for him. Obama has to be able to win big states, not just Illinois.

Bell Curve said...

What's the definition of a big state? Do Virginia and Georgia not count? Or Missouri? Or Washington?

The Law Talking Guy said...

Clinton will win the Texas primaries. It looks like Obama will win the caucuses. Clinton can now say she won New York, California, Texas, Florida, Ohio, and Michigan. This is a serious problem, I think, for Barack Obama. He continues to lead in the delegate count, and will increase his lead in Wyoming and Mississippi, but it's going to be hard to make the argument that he's the people's choice. This will last at least until May. Sigh.

The Law Talking Guy said...

I miffed the delegate count, because I miffed Texas. Currently, Clinton is at net +18 delegates, without Texas Caucus results. I suspect Clinton will end up being close to net +15 at the end. That's not much to show for the night. It's momentum she got. Wyoming and Mississippi (3/8 and 3/11) should restore that net 15 to Obama easily.

Dr. Strangelove said...

At the risk of belaboring the obvious, you accurately predicted Obama's 20 point lead in Vermont. And Texas was a crapshoot with large error bars, so the actual 3 point lead for Clinton is really just about the same as a 2 point lead you predicted for Obama.

The states where your predictions fell short--and where the delegate swing (small though it is) mostly comes from--are actually Ohio and Rhode Island. You guessed the victor but underestimated the margin of victory. Hillary won Ohio by 10 points, not 2, and won Rhode Island by 18 points, not 6.