Bell Curve The Law Talking Guy Raised by Republicans U.S. West
Well, he's kind of had it in for me ever since I accidentally ran over his dog. Actually, replace "accidentally" with "repeatedly," and replace "dog" with "son."

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Obama may have the momentum

Iowa's Democratic party county conventions were today. The precinct caucuses on Jan 3rd technically only produced delegates to the county conventions. Edwards delegates there had a choice to support Clinton or Obama, or continue to support Edwards. Most went for Obama, none for Clinton, some stayed with Edwards. AP is now estimating that Obama has picked up another 7 delegates from Iowa. Some reports are that Clinton actually lost a delegate in the process. Tallies will continue,but results should be clear in a day or so. Now, the state convention is the one that actually appoints the delegates, but it is fairly directly determined by the county conventions (appointing state delegates). Chances are the new totals will stand, because all the delegates are now fixed between the two camps.

This is very welcome news for the Obama campaign. It may signal what some of us have suspected - that Clinton's support is "tapped out" in terms of the party regulars at this point.
It also moves up the day of reckoning for Clinton. The question is whether he gets a majority of pledged delegates on 5/6 (Indiana and NC) or 5/20 (Oregon and Kentucky). If Michigan and FL vote on 6/3 (Michigan may, FL may not at this point) then the date of majority for Obama may wait until 6/3, the last primary election day when SD and Montana also vote (presumably for him).


The Law Talking Guy said...

Similarly, the Democrats Abroad had their regional caucuses. 1/2 a vote switched. So it's now 3 for Obama and 1 for Clinton, a 2 vote lead, not a one vote lead.

The Law Talking Guy said...

California's final results are also in. Clinton picked up two delegates; Obama picked up five (apparently the previously-published totals omitted 7 delegates). AP is also predicting that Clinton lost a delegate in Iowa - to 14 from 15. So she had a net gain of 1 this weekend - he had 14.5 Pledged delegates for Obama are now at 1415 - just 210 shy of a majority of all pledged delegates. Clinton's stands at 1245 - 170 fewer.

Dr. Strangelove said...

As of 12:00 PDT on Sunday, March 15 2008, these are the pledged delegate counts from the various news organizations. (GP means The Green Papers):

Organization: Total. Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Unallocated. Obama's Lead
AP: 2664. 1390, 1248, 26, 23. 142
CNN: 2673. 1411, 1242, 20, 14. 169
CBS: 2656. 1401, 1229, 26, 31. 172
GP: 2655. 1397.5, 1239.5, 18, 32. 158
RCP: (?). 1415, 1245, (?), (?). 170

Raised By Republicans said...

Pennsylvania has 188 delegates at stake.

The Law Talking Guy said...

PA has 158 delegates at stake; 30 are superdelegates. GP is behind in superdelegate counts and is a bit slow to update sometimes. AP hasn't updated its figures at all. The 170 figure is more or less correct.